Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 27, 2022

Updated: Thu Jan 27 21:51:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   Fire weather concerns remain probable over the weekend and into the
   first half of the upcoming work week. However, predictability
   remains low due to notable spread in ensemble/deterministic guidance
   and poor run-to-run consistency. Fire weather threats that do emerge
   will likely develop across the central portions of the Plains and
   along the southern High Plains where fuels for both locations are
   drier than normal for late January and little precipitation is
   expected through the extended period. 

   ...D3/Saturday - central Plains...
   A surface low is forecast to translate from the southern Canadian
   Prairies towards the Great Lakes through the day Saturday. With
   surface high pressure juxtaposed to the west, a tightening pressure
   gradient across the central Plains will likely support sustained
   winds near 15 mph. The southward advection of a warm, dry air mass
   from the lee of the northern Rockies may support RH reductions into
   the 20s. Fuels across the region, especially central NE into
   northeast KS, are very dry for this time of year and will support a
   fire weather concern if conditions trend towards the drier/windier
   side of the ensemble envelope. With the surface low weakening
   through the day, fire weather conditions will likely be dependent on
   the degree of boundary-layer mixing that can occur. 

   ...D3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
   Recent guidance has largely maintained modest potential for elevated
   conditions across western TX and adjacent areas of NM and OK. RH
   reductions into the low 20s and teens remain likely with strong
   model consensus noted. However, ensemble solutions maintain somewhat
   low probabilities for winds exceeding 15 mph for most locations. The
   latest GFS appears to be on the windier side of the distribution and
   may be the worst-case scenario in terms of fire weather conditions.
   Fuel status by Saturday afternoon will be dependent on the degree of
   warming/drying that can occur over the next 72 hours after recent
   snowfall. Conditions will continue to be monitored, but the
   potential for critical conditions appears too low for highlights at
   this time.

   ...D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
   More robust fire weather concerns will likely develop D5/Monday and
   D6/Tuesday afternoons as a series of upper-level shortwave troughs
   propagate through the region. These waves will induce moderate
   downslope flow off the southern Rockies that may be supportive of
   elevated to critical conditions from the Rio Grande northward into
   far southeast NM. The signal for this general pattern has been
   consistent across several model runs, and long-range ensemble
   guidance has maintained reasonable probabilities for critical
   conditions. However, the timing of the waves with peak diurnal
   heating and placement/strength of the surface trough remain
   uncertain. Furthermore, ERC values across southwest TX remain near
   or below the 50th percentile. Probabilities may be introduced in
   subsequent outlooks as confidence in wind/RH conditions and fuel
   status increases.

   ..Moore.. 01/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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