Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 28, 2022

Updated: Fri Jan 28 21:51:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Mid-level flow across the central CONUS will gradually become more
   amplified through the extended period as large-scale troughing
   shifts westward. The active jet will bring several shortwave troughs
   through the central US with strong winds aloft occasionally
   overlapping with dry and warm conditions at the surface. Ongoing
   drought conditions will favor fire weather potential early in the
   period before several storm systems bring increasing precipitation
   chances and colder temperatures. 

   ...Southern and Central High Plains...
   Starting D3/Sunday, a potent shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak
   will approach the northern/central Rockies and High plains. Strong
   northwesterly flow will overspread much of the region resulting in
   gusty downslope winds. Downslope flow will continue through
   D4/Monday ahead of a rapidly advancing Arctic Front moving out of
   southern Canada. The strong synoptic forcing will likely result in
   sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph coincident with adiabatically
   drying surface conditions. Model agreement is still poor with
   regards to minimum diurnal RH given the potential for clouds and
   precipitation. However, pockets as low as 15-25% appear possible,
   especially across the southern High Plains away from the cooler
   surface temperatures. Ongoing drought conditions should support
   adequate fuels if enough overlap between strong winds and low RH is
   realized. 

   Some fire weather potential may also exist ahead of the cold front
   across the southern High plains D5/Tuesday. Warmer surface
   temperatures, and gusty west winds aided by lee troughing and
   increasing flow aloft may support a few hours of elevated fire
   weather conditions. Again, models remain uncertain on the coverage
   and residence time of any fire weather threat, but regional fuels
   will likely be supportive. 

   The fire weather threat appears to lessen heading into mid to
   late-week next week as the cold front consolidates across the
   southern Plains. A strong Pacific Trough advancing through the Four
   Corners should strengthen a surface low across OK and TX, bringing
   cold air and the potential for winter precipitation to much of the
   Rockies and Plains. 

   ...Southeast...
   Little recent rainfall across parts of GA, SC and FL may result in
   brief elevated fire weather potential D3/Sunday into early next
   week. Stronger flow aloft pushing winds near 15 mph along with dry
   fuels may result in a few hours of locally elevated conditions
   through D4/Monday. However, high pressure increasing later in the
   week and the potential for precipitation thereafter should keep the
   threat for significant fire weather concerns low.

   ..Lyons.. 01/28/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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