Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 29, 2022

Updated: Sat Jan 29 21:40:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292136

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022

   Valid 311200Z - 061200Z

   Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overspread the central and
   western CONUS starting early in the extended forecast period. A
   strong open wave will pass through the Rockies D3/Monday increasing
   surface winds across the central and southern High Plains. A strong
   cold front will move south D4/Tuesday, ushering in a much colder and
   wetter airmass across much of the country for the remainder of the
   forecast period. Fire weather concerns will be limited to early next
   week across the western High Plains. 

   ...High Plains D3/D4...
   As northwesterly flow aloft begins to crest the Rockies late
   D2/Sunday into early D3/Monday, downslope winds and lee troughing
   are forecast to increase through the day. Across portions of eastern
   WY and western NE, model sounding show sustained winds of 25-35 mph
   with RH below 25%. Given the ongoing drought and dry fuels, periods
   of elevated fire weather conditions appear likely through much of
   Monday. 

   Farther south across the southern High Plains, the stronger flow
   aloft is forecast to arrive later and only glance portions of the
   southern Rockies. Thus, even with the very dry and warm surface
   conditions, low-level winds appear unlikely to be sustained above 15
   mph. This should keep the fire weather threat fairly limited to the
   immediate lee of the higher terrain near stronger surface troughing.

   Fire weather conditions become much less likely D4/Tuesday and
   beyond, as the cold front associated with the strong trough begins
   to move onto the Plains. While the initial surge will be relatively
   weak, surface winds are forecast to become northeasterly favoring
   upslope flow across much of the central and southern Rockies. This
   should support some moisture return as well as increasing chances
   for precipitation along with cooling temperatures. Only areas across
   far southwest TX and southeastern NM should remain clear of the
   cooler and wetter conditions. However, surface winds again appear to
   be poorly phased suggesting little organized threat for fire
   weather. 

   Beyond D4/Tuesday, building cold advection behind the front will
   bring an Arctic airmass into the CONUS. A strong Pacific Trough will
   intensify the cold front across OK and TX D5/D6(Wed/Thur),
   potentially supporting widespread winter precipitation across the
   central and southeastern US. Given the potential for widespread
   cooler and wetter conditions, the overall fire weather threat
   appears low through the remainder of the extended forecast period.

   ..Lyons.. 01/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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