Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Updated: Fri Feb 4 21:59:02 UTC 2022

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2022

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Feb 06, 2022 - Mon, Feb 07, 2022 D6Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022
D4Mon, Feb 07, 2022 - Tue, Feb 08, 2022 D7Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022
D5Tue, Feb 08, 2022 - Wed, Feb 09, 2022 D8Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Broad and positively-tilted mid/upper-level troughing extending from
   the Midwest into the southern Rockies will gradually shift eastward
   into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys through the extended
   forecast period. Farther west, an amplified upper ridge will persist
   across most of the western CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure
   centered over the Intermountain West. Along the southern periphery
   of the surface high, a prolonged period of dry, offshore flow will
   affect portions of southern California.

   While periods of critical meteorological conditions appear likely
   across portions of southern California during the extended forecast
   period, current indications are that high live fuel moisture will
   limit the overall wildfire-spread threat. Northeasterly to easterly
   winds will peak on Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with
   gusts of 35 to 55 mph possible across primarily wind-prone areas.
   Relative humidity values will drop into the single digits to
   lower/middle teens, with poor overnight recoveries expected. The
   offshore pressure gradient will peak again around Tuesday night into
   Thursday, when strong winds and critically low RH will develop once
   again.

   ..Weinman.. 02/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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