Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 5, 2022

Updated: Sat Feb 5 21:59:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Sat Feb 05 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   Broad mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern
   two-thirds of the CONUS, while a large-scale ridge encompasses much
   of the western states. Between these two features, enhanced
   northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained from the northern
   Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
   Multiple migratory shortwave troughs will advance through the
   northwesterly flow during the forecast period, with a particularly
   strong/compact shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum
   crossing the northern Rockies from Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday.
   At the surface, lee troughing will remain in place over the Great
   Plains until around Day 5/Wednesday, when a cold front will sweep
   across the region. Farther west, high pressure will continue over
   the Northern/Central Great Basin. 

   ...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains/Montana...
   As the strong/compact shortwave trough and accompanying speed
   maximum cross the northern Rockies, strong downslope flow and
   related warming/drying of the boundary layer will support very
   strong/gusty westerly winds and near-critical RH in the lee of the
   higher terrain. However, recently melted snow across the region
   should generally limit the wildfire-spread threat owing to
   sufficient ground moisture. 

   ...Day 4/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
   As the previously mentioned strong shortwave trough continues
   southeastward through the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, 
   downslope flow will favor lee troughing and breezy surface winds
   over the central and southern Plains. With that said, a limited
   spatial overlap of the breezy surface winds and critically-low RH
   precludes highlights at this time.  

   ...Southern California and Southern Arizona...
   Prolonged offshore flow along the southern periphery of the Great
   Basin high pressure will foster periods of dry/windy conditions.
   East-northeasterly surface winds will peak between Day 4/Tuesday and
   Day 6/Thursday, when 30-50 mph wind gusts and critically-low RH will
   be possible over primarily wind-prone areas. Current indications are
   that sufficiently high live fuel moisture will generally mitigate
   fire-weather concerns, though trends will continue to be monitored
   closely.

   ..Weinman.. 02/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT