Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 6, 2022

Updated: Sun Feb 6 21:57:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CST Sun Feb 06 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   The large-scale pattern will be characterized by broad midlevel
   troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, and an
   amplified upper ridge over the western states. On the backside of
   the large-scale trough, enhanced, deep-layer northwesterly flow will
   persist from the northern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower
   Mississippi Valley. A series of shortwave troughs will advance
   through the northwesterly flow during the forecast period, with a
   particularly strong/compact shortwave and accompanying speed maximum
   traversing the central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday.
   In the low-levels, high pressure will remain centered over the
   Intermountain West, while lee troughing is maintained over the Great
   Plains.  

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
   As the previously mentioned shortwave trough emerges over the
   central Plains, strong, deep-layer northwesterly flow off the
   central Rockies will favor efficient warming/drying of the boundary
   layer and 15-25 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts).
   These meteorological conditions, combined with very dry fuels
   (widespread ERCs in the 80th-95th percentile) will foster enhanced
   fire-weather conditions across portions of southern NE and northern
   KS on Day 3/Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, 40 percent Critical
   probabilities have been introduced to account for this risk. There
   is some uncertainty regarding the duration of these conditions,
   precluding the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities at
   this time. Farther south across the southern Plains (particularly
   portions of Southwest TX), breezy southwesterly surface winds and
   dry conditions will also be possible along the southern periphery of
   lee troughing. With that said, fuels across the region do not appear
   as favorable for the development and spread of wildfires owing to
   recent measurable precipitation.  

   ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern CA and Southwest AZ...
   Along the southern periphery of the surface high over the
   Intermountain West, strong offshore flow will continue to affect
   portions of southern CA and Southwest AZ. The offshore pressure
   gradient will peak late Day 3/Tuesday through Day 5/Thursday, when
   periods of 10-15 percent RH and 30-50 mph gusts (isolated 60 mph)
   will be possible across primarily wind-prone areas. However, current
   indications are that fuels generally remain unreceptive to
   wildfire-spread where the stronger winds/low RH will develop, so no
   highlights are introduced at this time.

   ..Weinman.. 02/06/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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