Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Wed, Feb 09, 2022 - Thu, Feb 10, 2022 | D6 | Sat, Feb 12, 2022 - Sun, Feb 13, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Feb 10, 2022 - Fri, Feb 11, 2022 | D7 | Sun, Feb 13, 2022 - Mon, Feb 14, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Feb 14, 2022 - Tue, Feb 15, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 072159 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Feb 07 2022 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mean large-scale troughing will continue over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while a mid/upper-level ridge and surface high pressure remains in place over the western states. Between these two features, enhanced northwesterly midlevel flow will persist from the northern Rockies into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. From Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday, a strong low-pressure system will evolve eastward across parts of southern Canada, with a corresponding tight surface pressure gradient overspreading the Great Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... In association with the tightening surface pressure gradient and downslope flow off the Rockies, periods of dry and breezy conditions are expected. Locally elevated conditions will be possible across the central Plains on Day 3/Wednesday, though winds appear to remain below critical thresholds. Through the remainder of the forecast period, the overlap of the stronger surface winds and critically low RH appears spatially limited -- precluding the introduction of highlights at this time. ...Southern California... Along the southern periphery of the upper ridge, prolonged offshore flow will continue to affect southern California through the forecast period. The offshore pressure gradient will peak on Day 3/Wednesday into Day 4/Thursday, resulting in periods of 20-30 mph sustained winds and gusts of 35-55 mph (primarily over wind-prone areas). At the same time, increasing upper-level support and related downslope warming/drying will favor minimum RH values in the single digits to middle/upper teens, with poor overnight recoveries expected. From Day 5/Friday though Day 7/Sunday, weak to moderate offshore flow and dry conditions will continue. However, the latest guidance on fuels across the area suggest that sufficiently high live fuel moisture will continue to mitigate the wildfire potential, though trends are being monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/07/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT