Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 8, 2022

Updated: Tue Feb 8 22:02:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Tue Feb 08 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   Multiple periods of enhanced fire-weather conditions are expected
   across the Great Plains throughout the extended forecast period,
   though forecast uncertainty precludes the introduction of Critical
   probabilities at this time. 

   Broad large-scale troughing will persist over the eastern two-thirds
   of the CONUS, while an amplified mid/upper-level ridge encompasses
   the western states until around Day 7/Monday. Between these two
   features, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow will extend from the
   northern Rockies southeastward into the southern Plains and Lower
   Mississippi Valley. A series of shortwave troughs will advance
   through the northwest flow during the forecast period, with multiple
   low-pressure systems evolving eastward across the northern CONUS.  
   By Day 7/Monday, a strong midlevel trough is forecast to move ashore
   over the Pacific Northwest, resulting in the breakdown of the
   mid/upper-level ridge. This will likely result in an active period
   of fire-weather over the Plains, though the details should become
   more clear in the upcoming days. 

   ...Central and Southern Plains...
   On Day 4/Friday, enhanced fire-weather conditions are expected over
   parts of the central and southern Plains surrounding cold frontal
   passage. However, differences amongst the medium-range model
   guidance regarding timing of the frontal passage casts uncertainty
   on where the fire-weather risk will be maximized. Fire-weather
   highlights will likely be needed over some portion of the central
   and southern Plains in subsequent outlooks as forecast confidence
   increases. 

   By Day 6/Sunday, another strong low-pressure system will move across
   the Midwest, with a corresponding tight surface pressure gradient
   overspreading the Plains. This will likely favor another day of
   active fire-weather conditions across parts of the central and
   southern Plains, and Critical probabilities could be introduced in
   upcoming outlooks if model trends continue. 

   Toward the end of the period, a robust shortwave trough and
   accompanying strong midlevel flow will once again favor dry and
   windy conditions over the Plains, though the details remain unclear
   at this time. 

   ...Southern California...
   Dry offshore flow will continue to affect southern California, with
   periods of critical meteorological conditions expected. However,
   high live fuel moisture continues to mitigate the fire-weather
   threat.

   ..Weinman.. 02/08/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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