Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 9, 2022

Updated: Wed Feb 9 22:03:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Wed Feb 09 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   A series of strong midlevel jet streaks will traverse the central
   Plains through the extended forecast period, supporting the
   development and eastward movement of multiple low-pressure systems
   and related cold fronts across the central and southern CONUS. This
   pattern will likely result in periods of enhanced fire-weather
   conditions, with a focus over the Great Plains and perhaps the
   southeastern U.S. 

   ...Day 3/Friday - Southern Plains...
   Breezy southwesterly surface winds near 15-20 mph and dry
   boundary-layer conditions are expected across the southern Plains
   ahead of an approaching cold front. While confidence is high in the
   overlap of 15 mph surface winds and critically low RH (i.e.,
   elevated conditions), confidence is lower in the overlap of
   sustained 20 mph winds and critically low RH -- precluding the
   introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. 

   ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday...
   Two speed maxes embedded in enhanced northwesterly midlevel flow
   will overspread the northern and central Plains on Day 4/Saturday
   and Day 5/Sunday. On both days, breezy northwesterly flow will
   coincide with near-critical RH, though the localized nature casts
   some uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. With that said,
   Critical probabilities may eventually be needed for this area as
   forecast confidence increases.

   In addition, breezy west/northwesterly surface winds could overlap a
   dry post-frontal air mass across the Southeast on Day 5/Sunday,
   though continued model disagreement casts uncertainty on where the
   best overlap of the breezy winds and low RH will develop.

   ...Day 6/Monday...
   As a strong midlevel low tracks eastward across the Great Basin, dry
   and windy return flow is expected over the High Plains. Here,
   confidence in the development of 20 mph surface winds on a
   widespread basis is low, and only marginally dry fuels exist where
   the stronger winds are anticipated. If models trend stronger with
   the surface pressure gradient, Critical probabilities will
   eventually be needed. 

   Across South Florida, dry/breezy northerly post-frontal flow will be
   possible on Day 6/Monday, though continued model disagreement on the
   strength of the surface winds limits forecast confidence. 

   ...Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southwest into the Central and
   Southern High Plains...
   Critical meteorological conditions are likely from the Southwest
   into the central and southern High Plains on Day 7/Tuesday, though
   fuels are only modestly favorable for the development and spread of
   wildfires where the critical conditions are likely to develop. As
   fuels continue to dry across this region, highlights may be
   warranted in subsequent outlooks. 

   For Day 8/Wednesday, critical conditions will also be possible over
   the southern High Plains, but there is uncertainty regarding where
   the best overlap of dry/windy conditions will develop.

   ..Weinman.. 02/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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