Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 10, 2022

Updated: Thu Feb 10 22:02:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for parts of
   southern California on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, and over portions
   of the southern High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. 

   ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California...
   Surface high pressure over the Great Basin and low pressure off the
   southern California coast will result in a strengthening offshore
   pressure gradient over southern California, where fuels are becoming
   increasingly dry. Wind gusts of 35-55 mph and RH in the single
   digits to lower/middle teens will be possible from Saturday into
   early Sunday morning, with a focus over Los Angeles and Ventura
   Counties. Conditions should rapidly improve by late Sunday morning
   as the pressure gradient weakens.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - High Plains and the Southeast...
   Downslope flow and lee troughing over the High Plains could result
   in locally dry and breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the
   Rockies, but confidence in the overlap of the stronger winds and
   critically low RH is limited at this time. Over the Southeast,
   critically low RH is expected to coincide with sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds near 15 mph, but confidence in
   critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities. 

   ...Day 5/Monday - South Florida and the Southern High Plains... 
   A dry post-frontal airmass and breezy northerly winds could support
   near-critical conditions over South Florida, but precipitation in
   the days prior casts uncertainty on the receptiveness of fuels. Over
   the Southern High Plains, breezy south-southwesterly winds and dry
   boundary-layer conditions may develop, but continued disagreement
   among the medium-range model guidance limits confidence. 

   ...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
   40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced for the southern
   High Plains, where confidence in the overlap of critically low RH
   and strong south-southwesterly surface winds has increased ahead of
   a strong approaching midlevel low. Critical conditions will also be
   possible over southern AZ, though fuels are not as supportive of
   wildfire spread.

   ..Weinman.. 02/10/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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