Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 11, 2022

Updated: Fri Feb 11 22:05:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS will remain in place for
   the first part of the extended forecast period ahead of a
   strengthening trough along the West Coast. This trough will move
   across the south-central CONUS through midweek, bringing the
   potential for elevated and critical fire weather conditions followed
   by widespread precipitation. The active mid-level flow pattern will
   likely result in several areas of fire weather concern through the
   next several days. 

   ...Southern California...
   Offshore flow is forecast to continue through D3/Sun as high
   pressure remains in place across the Great Basin. Widespread winds
   of 20-30 mph with RH as low as single digits will be likely across
   much of southern California. The prolonged stretch of dry and windy
   conditions should result in elevated to locally critical fire
   weather potential despite relatively moist live fuels. 40% critical
   probabilities will be maintained on D3/Sun.

   Offshore flow should begin to weaken D4/Mon as high pressure weakens
   across the Great Basin and a large Pacific Trough begins to move
   ashore. Onshore flow should resume bringing cooler and wetter
   conditions through midweek. Some model guidance suggests offshore
   flow may return later in the period into next weekend, but ensemble
   spread and forecast confidence remain low. 

   ...Southern High Plains into the Southwest...
   An uptick in fire weather concerns appears likely D4/Mon through
   D6/Wed across portions of the southern High Plains and Desert
   southwest ahead of the intensifying Pacific Trough. Strong mid-level
   flow with an 80-100 kt mid-level jet will begin to overspread the
   southwest early Monday enhancing a lee cyclone and southerly
   low-level flow across much of eastern NM and west TX. While
   southerly winds will begin advecting moisture from the Gulf of
   Mexico northward, the antecedent dry arimass may still support a
   chance for elevated fire weather potential through D4/Monday.

   The greater potential for elevated and critical fire weather
   conditions appears likely D5/Tue through D6/Wed as the upper trough
   begins to eject eastward onto the Plains. The surface low in the TX
   Panhandle will rapidly deepen increasing surface flow with
   widespread sustained winds of 20-25 mph. A sharp dryline should
   develop across the southern High Plains further enhancing surface
   flow to the west. Behind the dryline, surface RH of 10-20% along
   with the strong winds may support widespread elevated and critical
   fire weather conditions from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and
   western OK. As the trough progresses eastward, the potential for
   fire weather conditions will expand farther south toward the Texas
   Big Bend D6/Wed. While model differences remain relatively large,
   ensemble and deterministic guidance remain in relatively good
   agreement that fire weather conditions are possible. 40%
   probabilities have been added to D5 and D6 across parts of TX, OK
   and NM to account for the potential for widespread elevated and
   critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Lyons.. 02/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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