Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 12, 2022

Updated: Sat Feb 12 21:49:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D4 31,910 634,815 Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Plainview, TX...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122145

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   An active mid-level flow pattern is expected to support widespread
   elevated and critical fire weather conditions across parts of the
   southern Plains through mid week. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   A strong Pacific trough is forecast to move out of the Four
   Corners/southern Rockies and begin overspreading the Plains early
   D3/Mon. A lee low across southern CO and west TX should strengthen,
   drawing warm southerly flow across much of TX, NM and OK. Ahead of
   the main surge of Gulf Moisture, dry surface conditions may briefly
   overlap with surface RH below 25% across parts of central/north TX.
   A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions appear
   possible given very dry fuels. Greater confidence in future
   forecasts may necessitate the inclusion of elevated highlights, but
   confidence is low. 

   Forecast confidence is much higher in widespread elevated and
   critical fire weather conditions developing D4/Tue and D/5 Wed. The
   lee low across the TX Panhandle should deepen considerably as ascent
   from the upper trough moves overhead. A strong lee trough/dryline
   should accompany the low with strong west/southwesterly winds west
   of the lee trough. Model soundings show widespread winds of 25-35
   mph coincident with surface RH below 15% across much of western TX
   and eastern NM. Strong agreement between deterministic and ensemble
   solutions (particularly for D4/Tue) suggests high confidence in
   widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions developing
   over portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps farther west
   into the Desert Southwest. A large 70% probability of critical area
   has been added to the expanded 40%.

   Less confidence exists in the location and intensity of fire weather
   conditions D5/Wed and beyond. Wind fields are expected to be near
   peak as the main trough and upper jet, move overhead through the
   day. Increased moisture return from the Gulf, as well as a cold
   front advancing south may result in less coverage of low surface
   humidity across parts of OK and north TX complicating the overall
   forecast picture. However, it appears likely some elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions may develop across parts of TX/NM
   and the Big Bend region where 40% probabilities will be maintained. 

   ...Florida...
   A dry cold front will move south through the peninsula late D2/Sun
   through early D3/Mon. Behind the front, dry and breezy north winds
   are forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast of FL where little
   precipitation has fallen in the last few days. With surface winds of
   10-15 mph and RH of 30-35%, some model guidance shows the potential
   for a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions given 
   abnormally dry fuels. While confidence is low currently, elevated
   highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons.. 02/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT