Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 13, 2022

Updated: Sun Feb 13 21:36:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D3 58,796 1,105,923 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM... D4 28,729 231,755 Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Levelland, TX...Artesia, NM...Lovington, NM...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132132

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CST Sun Feb 13 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected into
   midweek next week across the southern Plains and Southwest. 

   ...southern Plains...
   Widespread critical fire weather conditions are anticipated ahead of
   a strong Pacific Trough D3/Tues into D4/Wed. A lee cyclone across
   southern CO and the TX Panhandle should deepen considerably as
   ascent from the upper trough moves out of the Four Corners. A strong
   trough/dryline should accompany the low with dry and gusty
   west/southwesterly winds across NM and west TX. Model soundings show
   widespread winds of 25-35 mph coincident with surface RH below 15%.
   Strong agreement between deterministic and ensemble solutions
   suggests high confidence in widespread critical fire weather
   conditions developing over portions of the southern High Plains
   where fuels remain quite dry.

   Farther west, considerable uncertainty exists regarding fuel
   availability in western NM and parts of AZ. Strong wind gusts
   beneath the mid and upper-level jet should easily support critical
   wind/RH combinations within the dry Desert Southwest. However,
   current fuel analysis suggests only limited concern given the early
   season nature of the system and limited fuel availability. 

   Critical fire weather conditions should continue into D4/Wed as the
   upper trough moves east. A complicating factor will be the presence
   of a strong cold front moving south through much of the Plains with
   the trough. Precipitation and cooler temperatures near the front may
   limit critical RH coverage across portions of west TX. However,
   farther south across the Big Bend and southeastern NM, strong winds
   and very low humidity behind the remnant lee trough/dryline should
   remain in place supporting critical fire weather conditions in dry
   fuels. A 70% probability of critical area has been added to the most
   likely corridor for sustained critical fire weather conditions
   D4/Wed. 

   Uncertainty increases further D5/Thu and beyond as the main trough
   ejects eastward and the cold front continues to move south. Some
   ensemble and deterministic solutions keep dry and wind conditions
   possible across southwest TX near and behind the dry frontal
   passage. Given dry fuels and strong westerly flow, this seems a
   reasonable solution despite increasing model spread. A small 40%
   probability of critical area was added along the international
   border, though some refinement may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Lyons.. 02/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT