Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 14, 2022

Updated: Mon Feb 14 21:04:03 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D3 31,579 271,429 Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...West Odessa, TX...Levelland, TX...Artesia, NM...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142059

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   A strong upper-level trough will move through the Southwest and out
   onto the High Plains on Wednesday. A deep surface cyclone will
   develop in West Texas and move northeastward along with the
   progressing upper trough. A cold front will then dive southward into
   the northern Gulf as the trough departs. A fairly broad trough will
   then be situated across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Towards
   the end of next weekend, there is some potential for the western
   upper ridge to then break down and another trough to impact the
   southern High Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the trough moves through the Southwest and into the Trans-Pecos
   on Wednesday, strong low to mid-level southwesterly winds will
   develop across much of the southern High Plains. Winds of 20-30 mph
   appear probable along with higher gusts. RH of 10-20% is expected.
   The northward extent of these conditions will be determined by the
   speed of the southward moving cold front. The northern Texas
   Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle are the areas with the most
   uncertainty regarding duration of fire weather concerns.

   With reasonable agreement between the ECMWF and GFS regarding the
   upper-level pattern next weekend, some increase in fire weather
   concerns may evolve by Sunday into Monday. With the trough's
   placement varying over the last day's worth of model runs, as well
   as possible precipitation with the mid-week cold front, uncertainty
   is too high for highlights.

   ...Rio Grande Valley/South Texas...
   Northwesterly winds are expected to develop behind a dry Pacific
   cold front/dryline on Thursday morning. Prior to cooler air moving
   in from the north behind a separate arctic front, downslope winds
   are expected to support RH reductions into the 15-25% range with
   winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire weather is
   possible.

   ...Southern California...
   Another offshore wind event is expected this Thursday. High pressure
   will build into the Great Basin behind the initial upper-level
   trough and stronger mid-level northerly/northeasterly winds will be
   present along the western flank of the trough. The uncertainty with
   this event will be precipitation that will arrive along with the
   trough. Higher elevations are most likely to observe higher amounts.
   Much less accumulation is currently expected in the valley regions.
   Given that the pressure gradients are expected to be weaker than
   other recent events, highlights will be withheld due to concerns
   being more localized.

   ..Wendt.. 02/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT