Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Thu, Feb 17, 2022 - Fri, Feb 18, 2022 | D6 | Sun, Feb 20, 2022 - Mon, Feb 21, 2022 |
| D4 | Fri, Feb 18, 2022 - Sat, Feb 19, 2022 | D7 | Mon, Feb 21, 2022 - Tue, Feb 22, 2022 |
| D5 | Sat, Feb 19, 2022 - Sun, Feb 20, 2022 | D8 | Tue, Feb 22, 2022 - Wed, Feb 23, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 152158 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Large-scale troughing over the west-central CONUS will gradually transition to primarily zonal midlevel flow by Day 5/Saturday. On Day 3/Thursday, a strong surface cyclone will lift northeastward into the Mississippi Valley, while a cold front progresses southward across the southern Plains. By Day 7/Monday, an additional large-scale trough will overspread the western CONUS, resulting in another period of dry downslope flow over the Plains. ...Day 3/Thursday - South Texas... Dry/breezy northerly surface winds behind the southward advancing cold front combined with downslope flow will result in a few hours of critical fire-weather conditions across portions of South Texas, where fuels continue to dry. Here northerly surface winds of 20 mph are expected to overlap 15-20 percent minimum afternoon RH. Therefore, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the development of these conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Prolonged downslope flow off the Rockies and the maintenance of lee troughing will support periods of enhanced fire-weather conditions over the southern High Plains each afternoon during peak diurnal heating/mixing. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for each day that confidence is modestly high in the development of Critical conditions, and higher probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks as forecast confidence increases. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will strengthen over southern California, resulting in boundary-layer warming/drying over the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. In addition, a speed maximum moving southward into the base of the previously mentioned large-scale trough will provide additional upper-level support for strong/gusty winds. Precipitation leading up to the event and questions regarding receptiveness of fuels casts some uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat, though trends will be monitored closely. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT