Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Feb 18, 2022 - Sat, Feb 19, 2022 | D6 | Mon, Feb 21, 2022 - Tue, Feb 22, 2022 |
| D4 | Sat, Feb 19, 2022 - Sun, Feb 20, 2022 | D7 | Tue, Feb 22, 2022 - Wed, Feb 23, 2022 |
| D5 | Sun, Feb 20, 2022 - Mon, Feb 21, 2022 | D8 | Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 162153 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire-weather concerns will generally be focused over parts of the southern High Plains throughout the extended forecast period, where periods of dry and breezy conditions are likely. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest for Day 5/Sunday, and 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for parts of eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. ...Southern High Plains... Enhanced westerly midlevel flow will persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period, resulting in a prolonged period of downslope warming/drying and lee troughing over the High Plains. For Day 4/Saturday, the surface pressure gradient will tighten along the southern periphery of lee troughing, favoring breezy southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid critically low RH. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained owing to some uncertainty regarding the development of widespread 20 mph winds overlapping the critically low RH, though higher probabilities could eventually be needed with subsequent outlooks. On Day 5/Sunday, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen over the west-central CONUS, with a corresponding increase in downslope flow off the Rockies and deepening of the lee trough over the Plains. In response, a corridor of 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts of 30-40 mph) will overlap RH in the single digits to lower teens from eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Very good agreement among the medium-range model guidance and global ensembles warrants the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities for this corridor. Another day of enhanced fire-weather conditions is expected over the southern High Plains on Day 6/Monday, and 40 percent Critical probabilities remain in place for this risk. A surface low is forecast to develop southward across the High Plains, supporting breezy west-southwesterly surface winds amid dry boundary-layer conditions over eastern NM into the TX South Plains. Higher Critical probabilities may eventually be needed here, though continued disagreement among model solutions limits forecast confidence at this time. By Day 7/Tuesday, timing differences regarding cold frontal passage over the Plains casts uncertainty on where the best overlap of dry and breezy conditions will develop, though current indications are that fire-weather concerns will continue over the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 02/16/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT