Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Sat, Feb 19, 2022 - Sun, Feb 20, 2022 | D6 | Tue, Feb 22, 2022 - Wed, Feb 23, 2022 |
| D4 | Sun, Feb 20, 2022 - Mon, Feb 21, 2022 | D7 | Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022 |
| D5 | Mon, Feb 21, 2022 - Tue, Feb 22, 2022 | D8 | Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 172157 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Throughout the extended forecast period, the fire-weather threat will generally be focused over portions of the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying and lee troughing will persist. In addition, the Mid-Atlantic states will need to be monitored for Day 3/Saturday, when a strong shortwave trough overspreads the region. ...Day 3/Saturday - Southern and Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will strengthen across the central and southern High Plains in response to a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains. Efficient diurnal heating/mixing and downslope flow should favor RH reductions of 15-20 percent, where sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected. This will likely result in critical meteorological conditions, though recent precipitation and snowpack over the central High Plains cast uncertainty on the receptiveness of fuels. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities will be maintained for this threat. ...Day 3/Saturday - Mid-Atlantic... A midlevel shortwave trough and accompanying strong flow aloft will overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Saturday, with related downslope flow and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds expected across parts of VA, MD, and NC. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to lower/middle 50s, and downslope trajectories off the central Appalachians combined with diurnal heating/mixing could support minimum RH in the 20-30 percent range. Currently, confidence is limited regarding the overlap of the breezy surface winds and critically low RH, though trends will be monitored closely. ...Day 4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... A belt of stronger midlevel westerly flow will cross the Rockies, reinforcing lee troughing over the High Plains. Along the southern periphery of the lee trough, a corridor of 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap RH in the single digits to lower teens from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained for this corridor, where confidence in the development of critical conditions is high. ...Day 5/Monday - Southern High Plains... A southern stream speed maximum will emerge over the southern Rockies on Day 5/Monday, resulting in strong downslope flow and the eastward advance of a dryline across the southern High Plains. Behind the dryline, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overlap critically low RH for a few hours. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest from southeastern NM into the TX South Plains, where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains and Central New Mexico... For Day 6/Tuesday, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions will be possible across the TX Trans-Pecos region and southeastern NM, though continued model disagreement on where the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH will develop precludes highlights at this time. By Day 7/Wednesday, critical conditions appear possible across parts of central NM ahead of a deepening surface cyclone, though fuels are not as receptive to wildfire-spread across this region, so no probabilities have been introduced at this time. ..Weinman.. 02/17/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT