Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Sun, Feb 20, 2022 - Mon, Feb 21, 2022 | D6 | Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022 |
| D4 | Mon, Feb 21, 2022 - Tue, Feb 22, 2022 | D7 | Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022 |
| D5 | Tue, Feb 22, 2022 - Wed, Feb 23, 2022 | D8 | Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 182117 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Medium-range models continue their consistent depiction of upper-level troughing in the West through about the middle of next week. This trough, centered within the Great Basin and Southwest, is forecast to eject into the southern Plains by late next week. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain beyond a ridge building in the West as the trough continues east. At the surface, a strong cold front will move southward through the Plains, reaching near the Gulf Coast around midweek. Fire weather concerns are expected to be focused within the southern High Plains region. Precipitation and cold air will mitigate concerns elsewhere. ...Southern High Plains and southern New Mexico... Lee troughing will intensify through the weekend as the trough continues to dig southeastward. By Monday, a central High Plains cyclone is expected to deepen and move southward before turning to the northeast on Tuesday. Critical fire weather is probable on Sunday and will become more widespread on Monday. Winds of 20-25 mph on Sunday will increase to near 30 mph in some places for Monday. RH of 10-20% can be expected both days. The cold front will continue southward, shifting eastward across the High Plains and up to the higher terrain. With the trough making little eastward progress into early Thursday, portions of southern New Mexico will remain in between the Pacific boundary to the west and the arctic front to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday. The spatial extent of potential fire weather concerns is limited enough that no highlights will be added this outlook. ..Wendt.. 02/18/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT