Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Feb 21, 2022 - Tue, Feb 22, 2022 | D6 | Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022 |
| D4 | Tue, Feb 22, 2022 - Wed, Feb 23, 2022 | D7 | Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022 | D8 | Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192110 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A broad western trough is expected to develop late this weekend into early next week. This trough will slowly dig southeastward through midweek before ejecting into the southern Plains by Thursday. Late in the week, the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain as there is divergence between model solutions. At the surface, a strong cold front will continue through the central Plains, reaching near the Gulf Coast by Wednesday. A surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains and move southward until pivoting northeastward by Tuesday. A back-door cold front will remain situated against the southern Rockies through much of next week with a Pacific front remaining within the Southwest for a similar period of time. With cold temperatures and precipitation expected across a sizable portion of the lower 48, fire weather concerns will generally remain low. Dry and windy conditions are most likely within the southern High Plains during the period. ...Southern High Plains/southern New Mexico... As the surface low deepens and slides southward, a mid-level jet will move over the region during the afternoon on Monday. This will lead to a broad area of expected critical fire weather from eastern New Mexico, the Texas South Plains, and combined Panhandle region. Wind speeds of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH of 10-20%. The position of the surface trough/cold front will delimit the northern extent of fire weather concerns. Within southern New Mexico, the Trans-Pecos, and parts of the Permian Basin, there is some potential for high-based showers to occur. The ECMWF has been more clearly trending towards this scenario in recent runs. Should this occur, RH would be impacted and fire weather concerns could be lessened or at least shorter in duration. For Tuesday through Thursday, there will be continued potential for fire weather concerns in between the Pacific front and back-door cold front in southern New Mexico into parts of the Trans-Pecos. Given the potential for light precipitation over fuels that are near seasonal norm ERC levels, no highlights will be added. Currently, Wednesday is the most likely to see potentially critical wind/RH combinations as the mid-level jet moves over the region during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT