Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 20, 2022

Updated: Sun Feb 20 21:09:02 UTC 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202105

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   A broad upper trough will continue to dig south and eastward through
   California into the Southwest through Wednesday. The trough will
   then eject into the southern Plains on Thursday and continue into
   the Northeast by late Friday. The general upper-level pattern
   forecast by models is for an upper ridge to develop off the West
   Coast and move inland next weekend; however, the amplitude and
   evolution of this ridge are uncertain this far in advance. At the
   surface, a strong cold front will move through the central and
   southern Plains on Tuesday. This cold airmass will then be
   reinforced in the wake of the southern Plains trough on Friday. The
   cold front will move westward up against the southern Rockies.
   Farther west, a Pacific front will be situated in the Southwest.
   These boundaries will remain in place until stronger high pressure
   pushes them southward late in the week.

   ...Southern High Plains and southern New Mexico...
   As the back-door front moves westward on Tuesday, strong flow at
   mid-levels will exist across the southern Rockies. There is some
   potential for increased fire weather concerns in parts of southern
   and eastern New Mexico. With the surface pressure gradient not
   particularly strong and at least some potential for the front to
   progress more quickly westward, no highlights will be added.

   For Wednesday, the mid-level jet will move over southern New Mexico
   during the afternoon. A stronger surface response should yield a
   stronger pressure gradient as well. Winds of 25-35 mph are possible
   with RH near 10% in some locations. Critical fire weather will be
   possible in between the Pacific and arctic fronts, which includes
   south-central New Mexico and the western Trans-Pecos.

   Low-level flow across New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos will turn
   northwesterly on Thursday as the trough passes to the east and a
   surface trough develops in South Texas. Some lingering dry and windy
   conditions are possible in southern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos.
   With winds decreasing into the afternoon, confidence in critical
   fire weather remains below 40%.

   ..Wendt.. 02/20/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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