Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022 | D6 | Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022 | D7 | Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 212125 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z A strong upper trough across the West will move eastward before ejecting into the southern/central Plains on Thursday. Model guidance forecasts an upper ridge developing in the eastern Pacific and moving inland this coming weekend. Another shortwave trough is expected to develop along the eastern flank of this ridge in the Pacific Northwest. There is uncertainty in the timing of this trough moving south and eastward into the Plains, but the general time frame would be late week into the weekend. By early next week, the upper-level pattern is more uncertain. However, current guidance indicates a more amplified eastern trough and western ridge pattern. At the surface, a arctic front will be situated up against the southern Rockies with a Pacific front in the Southwest. Cold air will be reinforced and pushed farther south as the trough ejects into the Plains Thursday. Cold air is expected to remain entrenched for the remainder of the week. Fire weather concerns continue to be focused within parts of the Southern High Plains into southern New Mexico, particularly on Wednesday. Other concerns may develop by the weekend depending on the evolution of the shortwave trough and airmass modification of the established cold air. ...New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos... Strong mid-level winds will arrive on Wednesday along with the upper-level trough. Surface heating and downslope winds off of the Mexican Plateau will promote very low RH values during the afternoon. Some areas may see single digit values with others seeing 10-20%. Winds are expected to be quite strong with 20-30 mph possible. Higher terrain will see greater speeds. Despite fuels being at near-normal dryness, meteorological conditions will promote critical fire weather in south-central New Mexico. Elevated conditions are possible along the Rio Grande to near the Big Bend. As the upper trough continues east, some stronger northwesterly flow at low/mid-levels is possible in parts of southeastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. The deterministic GFS would support the greatest potential for fire weather concerns. However, ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance show very low probability of critical fire weather. Highlights will be withheld for now. ..Wendt.. 02/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT