Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022 | D6 | Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022 |
| D4 | Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022 | D7 | Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022 |
| D5 | Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022 | D8 | Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 222047 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z The upper trough within the Southwest will accelerate northeastward into the southern Plains and into the Ohio Valley by Friday. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will develop in the West with broad cyclonic flow across the eastern third of the country. The upper pattern becomes more uncertain by next week. The ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Plains. Ensemble guidance shows a fairly high degree of spread with regard to whether a shortwave trough will break the ridge down early next week. Furthermore, deterministic solutions have been quite varied across the last day as well. At the surface, cold air is expected to remain present across much of the interior West as well as the Plains and Midwest into the weekend. Potential for elevated fire weather concerns will exist in parts of southern/eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos before the upper trough departs. The GFS continues to be the most aggressive with this scenario. Other ensemble and deterministic solutions are not so bullish. As the trough passes, the cold air to the north is expected to surge south. All this would suggest that fire weather concerns will be brief. No highlights will be introduced at this time. Depending on the evolution of upper-level ridge and possible embedded shortwave troughs, some dry and breezy conditions may return to the southern/central Plains early next week. Some precipitation may occur across parts of these areas as well as cold air remaining in place during the interim. Fuel dryness will also be an uncertainty as a result. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT