Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022 | D6 | Thu, Mar 03, 2022 - Fri, Mar 04, 2022 |
| D4 | Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022 | D7 | Fri, Mar 04, 2022 - Sat, Mar 05, 2022 |
| D5 | Wed, Mar 02, 2022 - Thu, Mar 03, 2022 | D8 | Sat, Mar 05, 2022 - Sun, Mar 06, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 262151 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z A small mid-level impulse embedded in the larger scale upper flow will traverse the Plains states Day 3/Monday, with modest surface lee troughing encouraging some dry and breezy conditions across the High Plains. Latest guidance consensus depicts Elevated criteria surface winds/RH across portions of the southern High Plains. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced where dry and breezy conditions will overlap dry fuels experiencing an extreme to exceptional drought. Dry surface air will persist across the Plains states through the remainder of the period, though surface winds will be weak Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday given upper ridging. A broader trough will approach the central U.S. by Day 6/Thursday, with guidance consensus depicting Critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced since fuels are expected to continue drying, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations in the forecast. Higher Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks pending guidance consistency. The upper trough may amplify across the central U.S. by Day 8/Saturday, with some guidance members showing Critically dry and windy conditions throughout the High Plains. Given timing and placement concerns, along with the lack of guidance consistency, Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Probabilities may be added across the High Plains in future outlooks if dry and windy conditions persist in the guidance for Day 8/Saturday. ..Squitieri.. 02/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT