Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Wed, Mar 02, 2022 - Thu, Mar 03, 2022 | D6 | Sat, Mar 05, 2022 - Sun, Mar 06, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Mar 03, 2022 - Fri, Mar 04, 2022 | D7 | Sun, Mar 06, 2022 - Mon, Mar 07, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Mar 04, 2022 - Sat, Mar 05, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Mar 07, 2022 - Tue, Mar 08, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 282148 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper ridging and associated weak surface flow will dominate the central U.S. Day 3/Wednesday before a series of upper troughs eject into the Plains states Days 4-7/Thursday-Sunday. Downslope flow and increasing surface lee-troughing/cyclone development across the Plains towards the end of the week into the weekend will foster dry and breezy conditions supporting wildfire-spread potential. The southern High Plains will be most susceptible to wildfire-spread given the existence of very dry fuels amid an extreme to exceptional drought, and negligible forecast precipitation accumulations. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain in place across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. The bulk of the upper support will lag to the west of the Rockies, tempering windy conditions to a degree. However, upper troughs will eject into the Plains states Days 5-7/Friday-Sunday, with Critically dry and windy conditions evident each day. So far, greatest guidance consensus and consistency in widespread Critical surface winds/RH across the southern High Plains appears to be on Day 5/Friday, with 70 percent probabilities introduced. 70 percent probabilities may be needed on Day 6/Saturday if medium-range guidance agreement increases. Similarly, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed for Day 7/Sunday across the southern High Plains if medium-range guidance can depict better agreement regarding where the most favorable surface wind/RH overlap would occur. ..Squitieri.. 02/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT