Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 13, 2022

Updated: Fri May 13 22:03:03 UTC 2022

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 13, 2022

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, May 15, 2022 - Mon, May 16, 2022 D6Wed, May 18, 2022 - Thu, May 19, 2022
D4Mon, May 16, 2022 - Tue, May 17, 2022 D7Thu, May 19, 2022 - Fri, May 20, 2022
D5Tue, May 17, 2022 - Wed, May 18, 2022 D8Fri, May 20, 2022 - Sat, May 21, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Throughout the extended forecast period, the fire-weather threat
   will generally be focused over parts of the Southwest into the
   central and southern High Plains. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday...
   On Day 3/Sunday, a very hot/dry pre-frontal airmass will be in place
   over the southern High Plains, where breezy south-southwesterly
   surface winds near 15 mph will be possible. This will likely support
   elevated conditions over parts of the TX South Plains, though
   confidence in the development of critical conditions (sustained 20
   mph surface winds) is currently low owing to the lack of a tighter
   surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front.

   ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday...
   For Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday, weak midlevel troughing and enhanced
   west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and
   southern High Plains -- where a very hot/dry antecedent airmass will
   be in place. On Day 4/Monday, 40 percent probabilities were added
   for parts of south-central NM into the TX South Plains, where breezy
   west-southwesterly surface winds are expected amid 5-15 percent
   minimum RH and near-record dry fuels. On Day 5/Tuesday, the
   fire-weather risk should be greatest in the vicinity of a sharpening
   dryline over parts of northwest TX, far southwest OK, and the TX
   South Plains. Here, a narrow corridor of sustained southerly surface
   winds near 15-20 mph should develop in response to a deepening lee
   cyclone over the central High Plains. 40 percent probabilities have
   been added for these areas, and higher probabilities may eventually
   be needed as the details regarding dryline placement become more
   clear. 

   ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday...
   For Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday, large-scale troughing will amplify
   over the western states, while a belt of strong midlevel
   west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Great Basin. Ahead of the
   approaching large-scale trough, fire-weather concerns will increase
   across a large portion of the Southwest into the southern and
   central High Plains each day. While the details are somewhat unclear
   at this time, present indications are that the fire-weather threat
   will be greatest across parts of the Southwest into the
   central/southern High Plains on Day 8/Friday, and 40 percent
   probabilities have been introduced for this area.

   ..Weinman.. 05/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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