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Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||
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Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||
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Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||
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D3 | Sun, May 15, 2022 - Mon, May 16, 2022 | D6 | Wed, May 18, 2022 - Thu, May 19, 2022 |
D4 | Mon, May 16, 2022 - Tue, May 17, 2022 | D7 | Thu, May 19, 2022 - Fri, May 20, 2022 |
D5 | Tue, May 17, 2022 - Wed, May 18, 2022 | D8 | Fri, May 20, 2022 - Sat, May 21, 2022 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 132159 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Throughout the extended forecast period, the fire-weather threat will generally be focused over parts of the Southwest into the central and southern High Plains. ...Day 3/Sunday... On Day 3/Sunday, a very hot/dry pre-frontal airmass will be in place over the southern High Plains, where breezy south-southwesterly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible. This will likely support elevated conditions over parts of the TX South Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions (sustained 20 mph surface winds) is currently low owing to the lack of a tighter surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday... For Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday, weak midlevel troughing and enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains -- where a very hot/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. On Day 4/Monday, 40 percent probabilities were added for parts of south-central NM into the TX South Plains, where breezy west-southwesterly surface winds are expected amid 5-15 percent minimum RH and near-record dry fuels. On Day 5/Tuesday, the fire-weather risk should be greatest in the vicinity of a sharpening dryline over parts of northwest TX, far southwest OK, and the TX South Plains. Here, a narrow corridor of sustained southerly surface winds near 15-20 mph should develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. 40 percent probabilities have been added for these areas, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details regarding dryline placement become more clear. ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... For Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday, large-scale troughing will amplify over the western states, while a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreads the Great Basin. Ahead of the approaching large-scale trough, fire-weather concerns will increase across a large portion of the Southwest into the southern and central High Plains each day. While the details are somewhat unclear at this time, present indications are that the fire-weather threat will be greatest across parts of the Southwest into the central/southern High Plains on Day 8/Friday, and 40 percent probabilities have been introduced for this area. ..Weinman.. 05/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT