Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Updated: Mon Jul 4 20:57:03 UTC 2022

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 4, 2022

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Jul 06, 2022 - Thu, Jul 07, 2022 D6Sat, Jul 09, 2022 - Sun, Jul 10, 2022
D4Thu, Jul 07, 2022 - Fri, Jul 08, 2022 D7Sun, Jul 10, 2022 - Mon, Jul 11, 2022
D5Fri, Jul 08, 2022 - Sat, Jul 09, 2022 D8Mon, Jul 11, 2022 - Tue, Jul 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042053

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   An expansive large-scale ridge will remain centered over the central
   CONUS including the Rockies for much of the extended period, while
   broad midlevel troughing persists over the eastern Pacific into the
   West Coast. Between these features, moderate southwesterly flow
   aloft will overspread the western states, with the strongest flow
   confined to the Pacific Northwest -- where fuels are generally
   unsupportive of large fire-spread. However, fuels across much of the
   Great Basin are critically dry, and modest deep-layer southwesterly
   flow amid hot/dry boundary-layer conditions could result in elevated
   fire-weather conditions each afternoon. These conditions could also
   spread northeastward into parts of WY, where fuels continue to dry
   out. 

   While considerable model disagreement is evident regarding the
   potential evolution of a midlevel shortwave trough over the northern
   portion of the Intermountain West between Days 5-7/Friday-Sunday,
   this feature could support a slight uptick in surface winds over
   parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies during this time
   frame. With that said, large global ensemble spreads during this
   period cast uncertainty on where/when the overall fire-weather
   threat will be maximized -- precluding Critical probabilities at
   this time. 

   Over the southern Plains, continued above-average temperatures
   beneath the ridge will favor hot/dry conditions and drying of fine
   fuels. These hot/dry conditions, coupled with breezy southerly
   surface winds aided by lee troughing could result in locally
   elevated conditions along and west of the I-35 corridor in TX/OK
   each afternoon. Currently, the development of critical conditions is
   not expected, so no probabilities have been added.

   ..Weinman.. 07/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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