Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Wed, Jul 06, 2022 - Thu, Jul 07, 2022 | D6 | Sat, Jul 09, 2022 - Sun, Jul 10, 2022 |
| D4 | Thu, Jul 07, 2022 - Fri, Jul 08, 2022 | D7 | Sun, Jul 10, 2022 - Mon, Jul 11, 2022 |
| D5 | Fri, Jul 08, 2022 - Sat, Jul 09, 2022 | D8 | Mon, Jul 11, 2022 - Tue, Jul 12, 2022 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 042053 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An expansive large-scale ridge will remain centered over the central CONUS including the Rockies for much of the extended period, while broad midlevel troughing persists over the eastern Pacific into the West Coast. Between these features, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the western states, with the strongest flow confined to the Pacific Northwest -- where fuels are generally unsupportive of large fire-spread. However, fuels across much of the Great Basin are critically dry, and modest deep-layer southwesterly flow amid hot/dry boundary-layer conditions could result in elevated fire-weather conditions each afternoon. These conditions could also spread northeastward into parts of WY, where fuels continue to dry out. While considerable model disagreement is evident regarding the potential evolution of a midlevel shortwave trough over the northern portion of the Intermountain West between Days 5-7/Friday-Sunday, this feature could support a slight uptick in surface winds over parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies during this time frame. With that said, large global ensemble spreads during this period cast uncertainty on where/when the overall fire-weather threat will be maximized -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Over the southern Plains, continued above-average temperatures beneath the ridge will favor hot/dry conditions and drying of fine fuels. These hot/dry conditions, coupled with breezy southerly surface winds aided by lee troughing could result in locally elevated conditions along and west of the I-35 corridor in TX/OK each afternoon. Currently, the development of critical conditions is not expected, so no probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 07/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT