Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Updated: Thu Sep 22 21:55:02 UTC 2022

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 22, 2022

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Sep 24, 2022 - Sun, Sep 25, 2022 D6Tue, Sep 27, 2022 - Wed, Sep 28, 2022
D4Sun, Sep 25, 2022 - Mon, Sep 26, 2022 D7Wed, Sep 28, 2022 - Thu, Sep 29, 2022
D5Mon, Sep 26, 2022 - Tue, Sep 27, 2022 D8Thu, Sep 29, 2022 - Fri, Sep 30, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   An upper low across the Dakotas will continue to lift northeast
   Friday and Saturday with breezy conditions continuing across the
   Great Plains. 

   High pressure will begin to develop this weekend across the
   Southwest, bringing a return to dry and warm conditions along with
   lighter winds. A secondary upper level wave will dig southward
   across the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday. A surface cold
   front will move southward across the Great Plains bringing dry and
   windy post frontal northerly flow.

   ...D3 Sat - Southeastern Wyoming...

   Strong mid level westerly winds will continue to produce dry and
   warm downslope flow across portions eastern Montana and Wyoming on
   Saturday. Recent rainfall should aid in keeping any elevated
   fire-weather conditions isolated.  

   ....D3-8 Saturday through Thursday - Northern and Central Plains...

   Across the Central Plains, there could be some overlap of sustained
   southwest winds around 10-20 mph with critically low afternoon
   relative humidity on Saturday. The best chances for this overlap
   exists across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where fuels are less
   receptive. 

   Post frontal northerly flow will usher in further drier conditions
   on Sunday. Drying conditions amid sustained winds around 15-20 mph
   across the Dakotas could lead to an Elevated Risk of fire-weather
   conditions on Sunday. The limiting factor is the recent rainfall and
   receptiveness of fuels. Recent guidance has come in a bit drier
   across portions of central Oklahoma with the potential for minimum
   relative humidity to be around 15-20 percent and sustained winds
   15-20 mph. The limiting factor is the coverage of critical winds at
   this time. This area will be watched closely as more hi-res data
   becomes available. Fuels in this area remain in the 80-90th
   percentile.

   Strong surface gradients will keep windy and dry conditions going
   across much of the Great Plains through days 5-8 as the Southwest
   high builds and troughing across the Northeast continues. With no
   rainfall forecast, fuels are likely to worsen under this pattern
   with each additional windy and warm day leading to concern.
   Confidence is low on exactly where critical winds and relative
   humidity will overlap at this time.

   ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/22/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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