Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Updated: Wed Nov 23 21:34:03 UTC 2022

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 23, 2022

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 25, 2022 - Sat, Nov 26, 2022 D6Mon, Nov 28, 2022 - Tue, Nov 29, 2022
D4Sat, Nov 26, 2022 - Sun, Nov 27, 2022 D7Tue, Nov 29, 2022 - Wed, Nov 30, 2022
D5Sun, Nov 27, 2022 - Mon, Nov 28, 2022 D8Wed, Nov 30, 2022 - Thu, Dec 01, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232131

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   Amplified mid-level flow is expected to cross the CONUS through much
   of the extended forecast period. The first significant upper trough
   is expected to move eastward this weekend while strong high pressure
   builds over the West. Cool temperatures and moisture will limit fire
   concerns across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS while gusty winds
   and dry conditions are possible across southern CA. Early next week,
   a second strong tough should move onshore bringing another round of
   cooler temperatures and precipitation, limiting fire-weather
   potential CONUS wide. 

   ...Southern CA...
   Offshore Santa Ana winds should gradually taper off though the early
   morning hours of D3/Friday across western portions of the LA Basin
   and southern CA. While some lingering strong gusts and localized
   fire-weather concerns cannot be ruled out, the fire-weather risk is
   expected to rapidly diminish as winds decrease and higher relative
   humidity begins to develop. Thereafter, onshore flow and cooler
   temperatures should limit fire concerns through the remainder of the
   period.

   ..Lyons.. 11/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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