Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Mar 20, 2023 - Tue, Mar 21, 2023 | D6 | Thu, Mar 23, 2023 - Fri, Mar 24, 2023 |
| D4 | Tue, Mar 21, 2023 - Wed, Mar 22, 2023 | D7 | Fri, Mar 24, 2023 - Sat, Mar 25, 2023 |
| D5 | Wed, Mar 22, 2023 - Thu, Mar 23, 2023 | D8 | Sat, Mar 25, 2023 - Sun, Mar 26, 2023 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 181953 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be present across the CONUS to begin the new week. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low until around mid/late next week. Forecast guidance is in general agreement that a broad trough will develop along the West Coast into the Great Basin around Wednesday. This feature will continue east and is forecast to eject into the Plains around Friday. Ahead of this trough, multiple days of lee troughing/cyclogenesis are expected. Given the expected speed of the trough, it appears that both mid/high level clouds as well as low-level moisture return will have a mitigating effect upon the degree of fire weather concerns. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain rather muted in terms of RH reductions. However, conditions will still likely be breezy and areas of localized risk may develop. For the weekend, current guidance shows a second trough following a similar path to the previous. This particular depiction has not been overly stable in the last several runs of models and even the most recent guidance does not agree on the strength of the trough. That being said, should the upper-level pattern evolve in this manner, fire weather concerns would likely be greater with the second system as low-level moisture will have been pushed out of the southern Plains by the initial system. Confidence is too low for highlights currently, but trends will be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 03/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT