Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sat, May 27, 2023 - Sun, May 28, 2023 | D6 | Tue, May 30, 2023 - Wed, May 31, 2023 |
| D4 | Sun, May 28, 2023 - Mon, May 29, 2023 | D7 | Wed, May 31, 2023 - Thu, Jun 01, 2023 |
| D5 | Mon, May 29, 2023 - Tue, May 30, 2023 | D8 | Thu, Jun 01, 2023 - Fri, Jun 02, 2023 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 252117 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Moderate southwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southwest on Saturday. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support some of this stronger flow reaching the surface across southern New Mexico and southeast Arizona, where single-digit relative humidity is also likely. This region currently has near 90th percentile ERCs with very dry antecedent D1 and D2 conditions leading to additional drying of fuels. Therefore, a 40% Critical probability is warranted. Next week, drying conditions are expected from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast to the Great Lakes. Locally critically dry fuels are possible in some locations by the middle to end of next week, but winds should remain light through the period and alleviate fire weather concerns. Additionally, dry weather is expected to persist across Arizona and western New Mexico into next week. However, winds should be mostly dry for the first portion of the week. There may be an increased likelihood of strong winds by the middle of next week, but there is not a strong enough signal to support Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT