Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 8, 2024
Updated: Tue Oct 8 20:57:02 UTC 2024
Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3
Thu, Oct 10, 2024 - Fri, Oct 11, 2024
D6
Sun, Oct 13, 2024 - Mon, Oct 14, 2024
D4
Fri, Oct 11, 2024 - Sat, Oct 12, 2024
D7
Mon, Oct 14, 2024 - Tue, Oct 15, 2024
D5
Sat, Oct 12, 2024 - Sun, Oct 13, 2024
D8
Tue, Oct 15, 2024 - Wed, Oct 16, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082053
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS
through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place
over the central and western US will remain through midweek.
Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds,
will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great
Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses
eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels
and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated
fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should
quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the
fire-weather threat will be.
Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and
Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with
the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for
dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A
second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the
Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This
could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the
Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited.
..Lyons.. 10/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT