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Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||
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D3 | Mon, Jan 06, 2025 - Tue, Jan 07, 2025 | D6 | Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 |
D4 | Tue, Jan 07, 2025 - Wed, Jan 08, 2025 | D7 | Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025 |
D5 | Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 | D8 | Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 042132 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT