Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Updated: Sat Jan 4 21:36:02 UTC 2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 4, 2025

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 1,948 843,575 Santa Clarita, CA...Thousand Oaks, CA...Simi Valley, CA...Camarillo, CA...Moorpark, CA...
D3Mon, Jan 06, 2025 - Tue, Jan 07, 2025 D6Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025
D4Tue, Jan 07, 2025 - Wed, Jan 08, 2025 D7Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025
D5Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 D8Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042132

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused
   along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is
   expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the
   country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or
   poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. 

   ...Southern California...
   Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good
   agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern
   Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual
   east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong
   north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This,
   coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern
   Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the
   southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at
   light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the
   passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to
   significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to
   increase through the day. 

   Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday
   afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading
   into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to
   suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime
   Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5
   to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and
   greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain.
   Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical)
   fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind
   speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in
   critical conditions remains high for Wednesday.

   Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into
   early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the
   cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period.
   Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the
   aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further
   forecast refinements are expected heading into next week.

   ..Moore.. 01/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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