Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Updated: Sun Jan 5 21:27:03 UTC 2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 5, 2025

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 3,386 3,567,631 Riverside, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Moreno Valley, CA...
D4 3,822 4,249,036 Riverside, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Moreno Valley, CA...
D3Tue, Jan 07, 2025 - Wed, Jan 08, 2025 D6Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025
D4Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 D7Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
D5Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 D8Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052123

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern
   California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow
   regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work
   week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit
   additional fire concerns. 

   ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California...
   Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper
   trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning
   on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the
   northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an
   offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing
   mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the
   terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds.
   Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal
   mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and
   should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire
   weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. 

   Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to
   increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend
   in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late
   Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier
   onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather
   conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an
   upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the
   greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday
   morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient
   will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on
   Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical
   fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated
   critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning.

   ..Moore.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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