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Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||||||
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D3 | Tue, Jan 07, 2025 - Wed, Jan 08, 2025 | D6 | Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025 |
D4 | Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 | D7 | Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025 |
D5 | Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 | D8 | Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 052123 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT