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Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: | |||||||||||||
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D3 | Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 | D6 | Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025 |
D4 | Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 | D7 | Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025 |
D5 | Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025 | D8 | Mon, Jan 13, 2025 - Tue, Jan 14, 2025 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 062149 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT