Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Updated: Mon Jan 6 21:53:03 UTC 2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 6, 2025

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 5,868 6,849,946 Riverside, CA...Glendale, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...
D4 2,539 1,087,128 Santa Clarita, CA...Simi Valley, CA...Glendora, CA...Altadena, CA...Moorpark, CA...
D3Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 D6Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
D4Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 D7Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
D5Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025 D8Mon, Jan 13, 2025 - Tue, Jan 14, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern
   California coast at the start of the extended period before a
   relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across
   the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and
   cold temperatures across the country. 

   ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California...
   Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start
   of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast.
   Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the
   West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward
   across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the
   next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A
   building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with
   strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong,
   prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning
   on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. 

   Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained
   winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph
   possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are
   expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus
   continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will
   occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards
   of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions
   down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values
   fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may
   experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions
   Wednesday morning and afternoon. 

   Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning
   into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread
   regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains
   high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher
   terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday
   morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced,
   and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast
   increases.

   ..Moore.. 01/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT