Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 10, 2025

Updated: Fri Jan 10 21:59:03 UTC 2025

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area D3 4,756 4,428,554 Riverside, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA... D5 7,118 4,203,250 Riverside, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of
   southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified
   mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained
   offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will
   deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building
   surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a
   strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA.
   With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds,
   critical fire-weather concerns are likely. 

   ...Southern CA...
   Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to
   continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low
   RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical
   fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore
   gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry
   conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of
   southern CA from offshore flow.

   The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later
   D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper
   trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant
   amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western
   side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and
   low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough
   begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level
   east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb
   across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into
   D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph.
   Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and
   downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread,
   potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely
   across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain
   of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into
   D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken
   D7/Thursday.

   ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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