Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Jun 14 08:27:03 UTC 2013
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140825
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/SWRN KS...A
SMALL PART OF SERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF MODESTLY
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAIL SWWD/WSWWD FROM A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL JET CORE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INTO PARTS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SW STATES. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALIGNED N-S
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WHILE
EXPERIENCING SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OVER ITS NRN EXTENT.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX OVER THE SWRN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.
...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/SWRN KS...A SMALL PART OF SERN CO...
THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION
WITH THE DODGE CITY KS...GOODLAND KS...AND PUEBLO CO WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.
A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN
CO NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN KS OVER THE WRN FLANK OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE PLAINS. TO THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...AND TO THE E OF A LEE SFC TROUGH...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH RH VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE
FRONT/E OF THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLY/SSWLY SFC WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH. OF NOTE...RH VALUES
MAY ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY CRITICAL IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES.
HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED RH VALUES...WHEN COMBINED WITH /1/ THE
STRONG WINDS.../2/ THE HOT AIR MASS.../3/ THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS...AND /4/ THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF RECENT
PRECIPITATION...STILL SUPPORT CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
ALSO...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF NWRN KS
INTO ERN CO...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CRITICAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION CORES ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINS GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.85
INCH AND ONLY MODEST STORM MOTIONS. HOWEVER...OVER THE PERIPHERIES
OF THESE PRECIPITATION CORES...LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS MAY
OCCUR...WITH FIRE SPREAD POTENTIALLY BEING ENHANCED BY GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS.
...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM...THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS...SERN CO...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN...AS SLY/SSWLY
SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS IMPACT THE AREA AND RH
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRONG WINDS. ALSO...WIND SPEEDS N OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTER ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS WHERE RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND MORE SHALLOW SFC-BASED MIXED LAYERS ARE ANTICIPATED. RECENT
PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN PARTS
OF NWRN KS N OF THE FRONT.
...NRN AZ...SRN NV...SRN UT...
THE ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED...TRAILING MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO OVERLIE A DRY ANTECEDENT BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SLY TO WLY SFC WINDS OF 15 TO
AROUND 20 MPH COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AMIDST DRY FUELS. HOWEVER...IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. THUS...NO UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS
BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
...PORTIONS OF WRN NM...SERN AZ...S-CNTRL CO -- DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING SW-NE FROM PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES TO
THE NRN PLAINS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
PLAINS RIDGE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS MOIST PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TODAY...AND OVERLIE THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST THE MOIST PLUME
AND MODEST BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND
0.5 TO 0.9 INCH ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPORT DRY THUNDERSTORM AND
MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORM MODES.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN
AREAS WHERE PW VALUES ARE AT THE LOWER END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RANGE FAVORING A DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF
NWRN/N-CNTRL NM INTO S-CNTRL CO. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE RELEGATED TO AREAS OF HIGHER PW FROM SERN AZ INTO
CNTRL/S-CNTRL/SWRN NM...THOUGH THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY EXHIBIT A
MIXED WET/DRY MODE.
REGARDLESS...LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN ACROSS
THE REGION AS FUELS ARE DRY. HOWEVER...WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF PURELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING...A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOT BEEN
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
...SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CA...
A MODESTLY ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT NLY SFC WINDS
FROM 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES FALL TO
MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 9-14 PERCENT...LIKELY PREVENTING THE OVERLAP
OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH. WHILE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODESTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AIDED BY DRY FUELS...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. AS SUCH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
..COHEN.. 06/14/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...