Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Nov 12 08:38:03 UTC 2015 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Nov 12 08:38:03 UTC 2015 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120833
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING MAINTAINED
UPSTREAM BY AN IMPULSE AMPLIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTENDANT TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CYCLONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CONUS. FARTHER W...A RELATIVELY FLAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ERN PACIFIC WILL ADVANCE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS...WITH DOWNSTREAM SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING A
SFC ANTICYCLONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER
NELY TO ELY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH -- LOCALLY STRONGER AND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING LOCATIONS THROUGH
CANYONS AND PASSES. DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING AMIDST
DEEP DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO YIELD MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 7-15 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH AREAS OF DRY
FUELS...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH
POOR RH RECOVERY ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ENCOURAGING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA THAT SURROUNDS THE CRITICAL
AREA...A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ENHANCED WINDS -- THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA. NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 7-15 PERCENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED.
LOCALLY/BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ON
MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL
DESIGNATION ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...SOME AREAS
OF LESS-RECEPTIVE FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD S OF THE CRITICAL AREA COULD
MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..COHEN.. 11/12/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...