Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Feb 23 07:19:02 UTC 2017 (20170223 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170223 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 117,625 1,442,695 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...
Critical 170,839 6,102,742 El Paso, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Albuquerque, NM...Tulsa, OK...Abilene, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230715

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN NM...WEST TX...EXTREME WESTERN
   OK...SOUTHWEST KS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   AZ...NM...WESTERN TX...OK...SOUTHERN/WESTERN KS...SOUTHEAST CO...

   ...Synopsis...
   In the mid levels, a zone of broadly cyclonic and strong flow will
   emerge over the central and southern High Plains, with the leading
   edge of the stronger flow advancing toward the middle Mississippi
   Valley through the period. As this occurs, a deep surface low is
   forecast to track along a frontal zone from eastern CO to KS, before
   it eventually advances to the middle Mississippi Valley. A dryline
   extending south of the low will sharpen and move eastward over parts
   of the Great Plains. A cold front trailing to the west/southwest of
   the low will spread southeastward across parts of the Great Plains
   during the evening and overnight hours. Deep vertical mixing into
   the strong flow aloft west of the dryline and south of the front,
   along with ample downslope-flow-enhanced warming/drying, will
   greatly increase fire-weather potential across portions of the
   Southwest States to the central and southern Great Plains.

   ...Portions of the Southwest States to the central and southern
   Great Plains...
   Across the Extremely Critical area, west-southwesterly to westerly
   winds of 30-35 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast to combine
   with RH of 8-10 percent during the afternoon. This will occur as
   temperatures rise into the middle 60s to the 70s, except to around
   80F in eastern parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western
   OK. These very strong downslope winds will support the very low RH,
   especially given poor RH recovery during the preceding overnight
   hours. Critical conditions could develop by late this morning,
   before extremely critical conditions develop during the afternoon.
   The presence of very dry fuels further supports the Extremely
   Critical designation.

   For many locations across the surrounding Critical area,
   southwesterly to westerly winds of 20-30 mph are forecast to combine
   with RH of 10-15 percent. One exception will be across portions of
   central and eastern OK, where southerly to south-southwesterly winds
   of 20-25 mph are forecast to combine with RH from the middle teens
   to the upper 20s -- highest readings across eastern OK. These strong
   surface winds are expected to occur in association with diurnally
   enhanced vertical mixing into a low-level jet focused across eastern
   OK around peak heating. Observational data suggest that moisture
   return will be limited, and vertical mixing will encourage RH
   reductions to the aforementioned values. While RH readings may not
   reach Critical thresholds in some areas, they are expected to become
   sufficiently low in the presence of abundant dry fine fuels and
   strong winds for Critical designation.  

   Within the surrounding Elevated area, elevated to borderline-
   critical fire-weather conditions are expected. However, critical
   fire-weather conditions are not expected to occur on any more than a
   brief/spotty basis.

   Across portions of the central/southern Plains, a wind shift to
   northwesterly is forecast to occur in association with the passage
   of the cold front during the evening and overnight hours, which
   could re-direct any ongoing fires. Also, a few thunderstorms may
   affect parts of east-central CO and northern KS to the north of the
   surface front during the late afternoon into the evening hours,
   after elevated/critical fire-weather conditions occur. However,
   these storms would more likely be accompanied by relatively higher
   RH and cooler temperatures in the low levels.

   ..Cohen.. 02/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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