Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Feb 28 08:04:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 280758 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough rapidly transits eastward across the Desert Southwest, a strong southwesterly jet maximum will develop from northern Mexico northeastward to the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Plains states through the period. Along this front, one cyclone will rapidly transit northeastward into the Great Lakes region, while another will deepen slightly as it progresses east across far northern Oklahoma. ...Dangerous fire-weather conditions to develop across parts of the southern Plains today... With a 60-70 kt 700-mb jet core positioned from southern New Mexico to northern Oklahoma by mid-day, deep diurnal mixing will encourage very strong winds across much of the region. A corridor of 30-45 mph sustained southwesterly winds is expected to materialize across eastern NM, western TX, the TX Panhandle, and far western OK by afternoon. Additionally, gusts of 55-65 mph will be possible in this corridor. 00Z AMA/MAF soundings depict a very dry tropospheric profile already established, such that the onset of deep mixing and strong downslope flow later today will lead to RH values falling to around 8-13 percent. In tandem with dry fuels, these meteorological conditions will create extremely critical concerns, characterized by very rapid and erratic fire spread behavior. Surrounding the extremely critical area, critical concerns are anticipated from portions of southern NM northeastward to south-central Kansas. Within this area, strong westerly winds near 30-45 mph sustained and RH values around 15-20 percent will enhance the fire spread potential across southern/eastern NM into the OK panhandle. Across the TX Rolling Plains, west-central OK, and southern KS, southwesterly winds around 20-30 mph and RH values near 12-25 percent can be expected. While RH values will begin to increase with the late afternoon / evening passage of a cold front across southwest Kansas, the TX/OK panhandles, and northwest OK, the rapid shift of wind direction to the north will complicate ongoing firefighting efforts. ...Portions of eastern Kansas into Missouri... The elevated area is also expanded northeastward to include eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri. Recent guidance suggests dry air should overspread the area today, such that diurnal mixing results in RH values near 20-35 percent. Stout southwesterly winds near 20-30 mph and dry fuels will combine with dry conditions to produce elevated/locally critical concerns. ..Picca.. 02/28/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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