Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 6 15:16:03 UTC 2017 (20170306 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170306 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 103,546 1,351,001 Amarillo, TX...Grand Island, NE...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...
Critical 203,987 4,870,483 El Paso, TX...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Lubbock, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061511

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

   Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
   NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...PORTIONS
   OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWEST OK...AND
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

   Minor adjustments have been made to the critical and elevated areas
   on the eastern edge of the outlook. There is still some uncertainty
   as to where the surface boundary will exit this afternoon and hence,
   how far east greater drying will occur. Based on latest guidance,
   trimming of the critical and elevated areas from IA into MO/KS/OK
   and portions of TX seems prudent. The surface boundary is expected
   to be near far northwest MO, southwest IA south-southwest toward
   Wichita KS and then western OK and western north TX late this
   afternoon. The eastern edge of the critical area roughly depicts the
   expected boundary location. Additionally, thunderstorms are expected
   to develop along this boundary around 21z-22z and quickly track
   east/northeast (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for severe thunderstorm
   concerns). This will result in a relatively tight gradient between
   critical/elevated to no fire weather concerns.

   Only minor adjustment have been made to the extremely critical area.
   Overall, forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with very dry and
   windy conditions expected behind the surface boundary.  For more
   details, see previous discussion below.

   ..Leitman.. 03/06/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are likely today in portions of
   the Plains***

   The primary synoptic features for fire weather conditions today will
   involve a vigorous negative-tilt mid-level trough over the northern
   Plains and attendant surface low over the Dakotas.  The surface low
   will deepen rapidly today while occluding and migrating
   northeastward into western Ontario by the end of the forecast
   period.  As this occurs, an expansive dry sector will overtake much
   of the Plains and southern Rockies, with strong mid-level wind
   fields and a steep surface pressure gradient fostering widespread
   critical and extremely critical fire weather conditions across the
   center of the country.

   ...A large part of the Great Plains from southern South Dakota
   southward to southern New Mexico and far west Texas...
   A dangerous fire weather scenario is expected to unfold from midday
   onward across these regions.  Westerly/southwesterly surface flow is
   expected to intensify today in conjunction with the onset of
   insolation and the gradual development of a well-mixed boundary
   layer across the region.  This flow will develop amidst a dry
   airmass, with sub-20% afternoon RH values and dry fuels expected to
   contribute to widespread elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions.

   The region of greatest concern remains located along an axis from
   southeastern Nebraska southwestward into west-central Kansas,
   portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and eastern New
   Mexico.  Here, 30-45 mph westerly surface winds will become common
   as temperatures rise into the 70s and RH values fall to between 5
   and 15%.  An extremely critical fire weather delineation was
   expanded in this forecast to address the emerging threat in these
   regions.

   Northwest of the extremely critical region (in eastern Colorado and
   western Nebraska), elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
   will become likely by midday as 30-40 mph winds (and higher gusts)
   develop amidst 10-15% RH values.  A limiting factor for a more
   expansive fire weather threat will be cooling surface temperatures,
   which should max out in the low 40s F in most areas and fall into
   the 30s shortly after peak heating hours in a few areas.

   Some uncertainty exists with regard to the eastward evolution of a
   surface dryline this afternoon.  Models suggest that this boundary
   should be oriented from far western Iowa south-southwestward to
   eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and western North Texas.  The fire
   weather threat in these areas will be modulated by how far east the
   dryline can mix during the afternoon and early evening.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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