Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Mar 6 15:16:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 061511 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWEST OK...AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN ROCKIES... Minor adjustments have been made to the critical and elevated areas on the eastern edge of the outlook. There is still some uncertainty as to where the surface boundary will exit this afternoon and hence, how far east greater drying will occur. Based on latest guidance, trimming of the critical and elevated areas from IA into MO/KS/OK and portions of TX seems prudent. The surface boundary is expected to be near far northwest MO, southwest IA south-southwest toward Wichita KS and then western OK and western north TX late this afternoon. The eastern edge of the critical area roughly depicts the expected boundary location. Additionally, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary around 21z-22z and quickly track east/northeast (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for severe thunderstorm concerns). This will result in a relatively tight gradient between critical/elevated to no fire weather concerns. Only minor adjustment have been made to the extremely critical area. Overall, forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with very dry and windy conditions expected behind the surface boundary. For more details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 03/06/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2017/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are likely today in portions of the Plains*** The primary synoptic features for fire weather conditions today will involve a vigorous negative-tilt mid-level trough over the northern Plains and attendant surface low over the Dakotas. The surface low will deepen rapidly today while occluding and migrating northeastward into western Ontario by the end of the forecast period. As this occurs, an expansive dry sector will overtake much of the Plains and southern Rockies, with strong mid-level wind fields and a steep surface pressure gradient fostering widespread critical and extremely critical fire weather conditions across the center of the country. ...A large part of the Great Plains from southern South Dakota southward to southern New Mexico and far west Texas... A dangerous fire weather scenario is expected to unfold from midday onward across these regions. Westerly/southwesterly surface flow is expected to intensify today in conjunction with the onset of insolation and the gradual development of a well-mixed boundary layer across the region. This flow will develop amidst a dry airmass, with sub-20% afternoon RH values and dry fuels expected to contribute to widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The region of greatest concern remains located along an axis from southeastern Nebraska southwestward into west-central Kansas, portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and eastern New Mexico. Here, 30-45 mph westerly surface winds will become common as temperatures rise into the 70s and RH values fall to between 5 and 15%. An extremely critical fire weather delineation was expanded in this forecast to address the emerging threat in these regions. Northwest of the extremely critical region (in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska), elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will become likely by midday as 30-40 mph winds (and higher gusts) develop amidst 10-15% RH values. A limiting factor for a more expansive fire weather threat will be cooling surface temperatures, which should max out in the low 40s F in most areas and fall into the 30s shortly after peak heating hours in a few areas. Some uncertainty exists with regard to the eastward evolution of a surface dryline this afternoon. Models suggest that this boundary should be oriented from far western Iowa south-southwestward to eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and western North Texas. The fire weather threat in these areas will be modulated by how far east the dryline can mix during the afternoon and early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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