Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Mar 22 17:50:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 221745 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains... Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across the region Thursday afternoon with an extremely critical fire-weather threat (characterized by sustained winds from 35 to 45 mph amidst single-digit RH values) extending from the TX Trans-Pecos northward across eastern NM and into southeastern CO. Based on anticipated dryline position, the extremely critical delineation was extended a bit more eastward to include more of eastern NM. A critical fire weather threat surrounds the extremely critical area, extending into western portions of the TX Panhandle and through the remainder of eastern CO. ...East of the dryline into the Southern/Central Plains... As mentioned in the previous discussion, the returning low-level moisture will likely mix-out east of the dryline, with afternoon RH values generally in the mid 20s. Additionally, a tight surface pressure gradient and strong low/mid-level flow will support gusty southeast winds (i.e. sustained speeds from 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph). These conditions will support an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat in areas where fuels are dry and/or green-up has yet occur. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate on the dryline with the deeply mixed boundary-layer and fast storm motions resulting in the potential for lightning occurrence with little to no precipitation at the surface, particularly with initial development. As a result, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was introduced from the Permian Basin northward into southeast CO/southwest KS. ..Mosier.. 03/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0313 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough is expected to move eastward from the Southwest at the beginning of the period into the Plains region by Friday morning. As this trough moves eastward, an associated surface low will deepen across portions of the central High Plains. A substantial fire weather risk is expected to evolve as very windy and dry conditions develop behind a dryline across portions of West Texas into the High Plains. ...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains... Very strong south-southwesterly flow is expected to develop on Thursday afternoon behind the dryline, aided by an increasing pressure gradient and increasing deep-layer flow associated with the upper trough. Sustained winds of 25-35 MPH will be common from portions of eastern CO southward through portions of New Mexico into West Texas. Meanwhile, strong heating of a very dry airmass will result in minimum RH values from 6-15 percent, which in combination with the strong winds will result in a critical fire weather threat. An extremely critical area has been added over portions of eastern NM into the Trans-Pecos region of West TX, where the greatest confidence exists in the concurrence of sustained winds in excess of 30 MPH and minimum RH values below 10%. Some adjustments to the eastern extent of the critical area are possible as forecasts of the dryline position become more refined. ...East of the dryline across portions of the Central/Southern Plains... Moisture quality ahead of the dryline is expected to be rather poor, and deep mixing combined with strong southerly flow may result in elevated/locally critical conditions further east into portions of the central/southern Plains. Additionally, fast-moving high-based thunderstorms that develop near the dryline may produce little in the way of measurable rainfall, resulting in a potential for new ignitions within a regime of at least elevated wind/RH conditions. Uncertainty regarding the dryline position and evolution of convection along and ahead of the dryline preclude any delineation of dry-thunderstorm threats at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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