Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Mar 22 17:50:03 UTC 2017 (20170322 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170322 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 48,865 264,115 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Portales, NM...Artesia, NM...
Critical 75,593 1,469,667 Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Socorro, TX...Hobbs, NM...Cimarron Hills, CO...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 221745

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   ...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains...
   Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across the
   region Thursday afternoon with an extremely critical fire-weather
   threat (characterized by sustained winds from 35 to 45 mph amidst
   single-digit RH values) extending from the TX Trans-Pecos northward
   across eastern NM and into southeastern CO. Based on anticipated
   dryline position, the extremely critical delineation was extended a
   bit more eastward to include more of eastern NM. A critical fire
   weather threat surrounds the extremely critical area, extending into
   western portions of the TX Panhandle and through the remainder of
   eastern CO. 

   ...East of the dryline into the Southern/Central Plains...
   As mentioned in the previous discussion, the returning low-level
   moisture will likely mix-out east of the dryline, with afternoon RH
   values generally in the mid 20s. Additionally, a tight surface
   pressure gradient and strong low/mid-level flow will support gusty
   southeast winds (i.e. sustained speeds from 25 to 35 mph with gusts
   over 40 mph). These conditions will support an elevated to locally
   critical fire weather threat in areas where fuels are dry and/or
   green-up has yet occur.  

   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   on the dryline with the deeply mixed boundary-layer and fast storm
   motions resulting in the potential for lightning occurrence with
   little to no precipitation at the surface, particularly with initial
   development. As a result, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was
   introduced from the Permian Basin northward into southeast
   CO/southwest KS.

   ..Mosier.. 03/22/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0313 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

   A strong upper trough is expected to move eastward from the
   Southwest at the beginning of the period into the Plains region by
   Friday morning. As this trough moves eastward, an associated surface
   low will deepen across portions of the central High Plains. A
   substantial fire weather risk is expected to evolve as very windy
   and dry conditions develop behind a dryline across portions of West
   Texas into the High Plains. 

   ...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains...
   Very strong south-southwesterly flow is expected to develop on
   Thursday afternoon behind the dryline, aided by an increasing
   pressure gradient and increasing deep-layer flow associated with the
   upper trough. Sustained winds of 25-35 MPH will be common from
   portions of eastern CO southward through portions of New Mexico into
   West Texas. Meanwhile, strong heating of a very dry airmass will
   result in minimum RH values from 6-15 percent, which in combination
   with the strong winds will result in a critical fire weather threat.
   An extremely critical area has been added over portions of eastern
   NM into the Trans-Pecos region of West TX, where the greatest
   confidence exists in the concurrence of sustained winds in excess of
   30 MPH and minimum RH values below 10%. Some adjustments to the
   eastern extent of the critical area are possible as forecasts of the
   dryline position become more refined. 

   ...East of the dryline across portions of the Central/Southern
   Moisture quality ahead of the dryline is expected to be rather poor,
   and deep mixing combined with strong southerly flow may result in
   elevated/locally critical conditions further east into portions of
   the central/southern Plains. Additionally, fast-moving high-based
   thunderstorms that develop near the dryline may produce little in
   the way of measurable rainfall, resulting in a potential for new
   ignitions within a regime of at least elevated wind/RH conditions.
   Uncertainty regarding the dryline position and evolution of
   convection along and ahead of the dryline preclude any delineation
   of dry-thunderstorm threats at this time.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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