Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 22 19:20:03 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 221918 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHEAST NM... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern/Central High Plains... Portions of for northeast NM, extreme southeast CO/southwest KS and western portions of the OK/TX Panhandles have been upgraded to extremely critical. Latest high-resolution guidance has trended a bit drier with stronger winds across this region. RH values around 9-13 percent are expected as temperatures warm into the 80s. Deep boundary layer mixing will allow for downward transport of higher midlevel winds. As the lee cyclone deepens and tracks east into western KS, sustained west/southwest surface winds will increase to 25-35 mph with higher gusts. These conditions, combined with critically dry fuels, will lead to extreme fire behavior should ignition occur. Surrounding the extremely critical area, the critical and elevated areas have been adjusted based on latest model trends. The main change to the critical area has been an extension to the south across the TX Big Bend region and to the west across parts of southeast NM. Some uncertainty still exists on the northern and eastern extent of the fire weather areas and is dependent on the position of the surface low and dryline. For more details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Plains Friday morning will be eroded as a shortwave trough moves eastward from the Southwest to the southern Plains through the day. 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the southern/central High Plains Friday afternoon. At the surface, a low should develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by Friday evening. A dryline extending southward from this low is forecast to mix eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK border by peak afternoon heating. A trailing Pacific cold front attendant to the surface low should sweep southeastward across the southern/central High Plains Friday evening/night. ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains... Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop behind the eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern High Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph appear likely across this region, with the strongest winds expected beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Higher gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible. An already dry low-level airmass will be present behind the dryline, and downslope warming/drying of this airmass coupled with diurnal heating will easily support RH values becoming lowered into the 10-15% range across parts of eastern NM/southeastern CO into southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With dry to very dry fuels present, a critical delineation remains across these areas. Some eastward expansion has been made to the critical area based off the forecast position of the dryline late Friday afternoon. High-end critical conditions may occur across parts of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles where sustained winds exceed 30 mph and RH values approach 10%. Elevated conditions will likely occur across parts of the Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central High Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker sustained winds precluding an even larger critical area at this time. ...Portions of the FL Peninsula... A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula on Day 2/Friday. With strong diurnal heating expected, RH values should fall into the 20-35% range for a majority of this area. However, wind speeds are forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph), which precludes the inclusion of an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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