Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Apr 11 07:39:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 110737 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...EASTERN CO...FAR SOUTHWEST KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEAST UT...FAR SOUTHWEST CO...CENTRAL/EASTERN COLORADO...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OK...WEST TX... ...Synopsis... Thursday will be the second day of a significant, multi-day fire weather episode across a large portion of the Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. A powerful upper trough centered over the Great Basin at the start of the period will move eastward into the Rockies, as a strong surface low consolidates over the central High Plains by late afternoon. ...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains... ***Dangerous fire-weather conditions are expected across a large area of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on Thursday afternoon*** Very warm, dry, and windy conditions will support critical to potential extremely critical fire-weather conditions across a large area of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains. At this time, the most likely region where extremely critical conditions will materialize is over portions of eastern NM into west TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO, and a small portion of southwest KS, where sustained winds at or above 30 mph will be possible in conjunction with very warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s F and minimum RH values of 5-10%. High-end critical to locally extreme conditions will also be possible across a larger portion of northeastern AZ, NM and west TX, and some expansion of the extremely critical area is possible in subsequent outlooks. The eastern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the position of the dryline during the afternoon hours, and there is some uncertainty regarding how far east will progress during the afternoon, given that the primary upper trough will still be well to the west during the day and cyclogenesis will be ongoing across the central High Plains. The dryline will likely retreat some to the west on Thursday evening, but for areas that remain behind the dryline across NM into west TX, very poor RH recovery is expected overnight into Friday morning. With winds expected to remain strong as the cold front approaches the region, there is potential for near-critical conditions to last through the night in some locations. ..Dean.. 04/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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