Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Apr 11 07:39:02 UTC 2018 (20180411 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180411 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 95,141 1,838,441 Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Roswell, NM...Castle Rock, CO...
Critical 317,670 12,439,851 Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Mesa, AZ...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110737

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 AM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...EASTERN CO...FAR
   SOUTHWEST KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...FAR
   SOUTHEAST UT...FAR SOUTHWEST CO...CENTRAL/EASTERN
   COLORADO...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN
   OK...WEST TX...

   ...Synopsis...
   Thursday will be the second day of a significant, multi-day fire
   weather episode across a large portion of the Southwest into the
   central/southern High Plains. A powerful upper trough centered over
   the Great Basin at the start of the period will move eastward into
   the Rockies, as a strong surface low consolidates over the central
   High Plains by late afternoon. 

   ...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains...

   ***Dangerous fire-weather conditions are expected across a large
   area of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on Thursday
   afternoon***

   Very warm, dry, and windy conditions will support critical to
   potential extremely critical fire-weather conditions across a large
   area of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains. At this
   time, the most likely region where extremely critical conditions
   will materialize is over portions of eastern NM into west TX, the
   OK/TX Panhandles, southeast CO, and a small portion of southwest KS,
   where sustained winds at or above 30 mph will be possible in
   conjunction with very warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s F and
   minimum RH values of 5-10%. High-end critical to locally extreme
   conditions will also be possible across a larger portion of
   northeastern AZ, NM and west TX, and some expansion of the extremely
   critical area is possible in subsequent outlooks. 

   The eastern extent of critical conditions will be determined by the
   position of the dryline during the afternoon hours, and there is
   some uncertainty regarding how far east will progress during the
   afternoon, given that the primary upper trough will still be well to
   the west during the day and cyclogenesis will be ongoing across the
   central High Plains. 

   The dryline will likely retreat some to the west on Thursday
   evening, but for areas that remain behind the dryline across NM into
   west TX, very poor RH recovery is expected overnight into Friday
   morning. With winds expected to remain strong as the cold front
   approaches the region, there is potential for near-critical
   conditions to last through the night in some locations.

   ..Dean.. 04/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home