Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Apr 12 19:56:02 UTC 2018 (20180412 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180412 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 130,145 2,782,846 El Paso, TX...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Critical 148,101 9,076,468 Phoenix, AZ...Oklahoma City, OK...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Wichita, KS...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 121955

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM...MUCH OF WEST TX...AND SOUTHWESTERN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ***Dangerous fire weather conditions with large to extreme rates of
   fire spread will occur across portions of southern/eastern NM, much
   of west TX, and into southwestern/central OK.***

   No substantial changes have been made to the extremely critical fire
   weather area for Day 2/Friday. Sustained west-southwesterly winds of
   30-40 mph appear likely across this area, with higher gusts to 50-60
   mph possible. RH values will plummet into the 7-15% range behind an
   eastward-mixing dryline, and dry to very dry fuels will support
   large to extreme fire spread.

   Some uncertainty remains regarding the placement of a cold front at
   the beginning of the period across northeastern NM into the TX/OK
   Panhandles and southwestern KS. However, there is enough agreement
   amongst 12Z guidance to adjust the northward extent of the critical
   area across the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK and south-central
   KS to account for strong/gusty winds of 20-30 mph and RH values less
   than 15% ahead of the front Friday morning.

   As the cold front moves southward across the southern High Plains
   Friday afternoon, winds will shift to northwesterly. Cooler
   temperatures and quickly increasing RH values should tend to reduce
   the fire weather threat behind the cold front, although the wind
   shift could redirect any ongoing fires. See the previous discussion
   below for more information.

   ..Gleason.. 04/12/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0246 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A second day of widespread critical fire weather will exist Friday
   afternoon.  A vigorous mid-level low will begin to close off over
   the central Plains and decelerate its eastward progression.  As this
   process occurs, a belt of strong mid-level flow will persist from
   portions of the Southwest eastward through southern New Mexico, west
   Texas and northeastward into western Missouri.  Meanwhile, a surface
   low will migrate eastward toward northwestern Missouri during the
   afternoon, with two surface boundaries modulating the overall fire
   weather risk: 1) a southward-moving cold front that should reach the
   Texas Panhandle by mid-morning and 2) an eastward-moving dryline
   that should reach the US75 corridor during the afternoon.  South of
   the front and west of the dryline, dangerous fire weather conditions
   will likely develop and persist into the evening hours.

   ...Southwest into the southern and central Plains...

   ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are likely across portions of
   far southern New Mexico, much of west Texas, and through
   southwestern/central Oklahoma***

   As mentioned previously, fire weather conditions will become most
   dangerous south of a cold front over the Texas
   Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma and west of a dryline that should
   reach the US75 corridor (from Tulsa to Dallas) and extend
   south-southwest from there along I-35 in Texas.  In this region, a
   broad area of surface winds exceeding 30 mph and single-digit RH
   values will exist for several hours during the afternoon.  An
   extremely critical fire weather delineation has been made in areas
   most likely to experience these conditions (amidst dry fuels).

   The northeastern extent of this area is a bit more in question due
   to frontal passage timing and specific position of the dryline. 
   Still, it appears that an axis of dry, windy conditions will extend
   from southwest Oklahoma to east-central Kansas, with conditions
   potentially exceeding extremely critical fire weather thresholds (30
   mph winds and 15% RH values) in Oklahoma on at least a
   brief/localized basis.  Briefly critical fire weather (20 mph winds
   and 15-20% RH) may also affect areas of east-central Kansas,
   although this regime is a bit more conditional.  These areas will be
   monitored for a possible upgrade and/or extension of critical
   spatial areas in later outlooks.

   Farther west from New Mexico into the Lower Colorado River Valley,
   cooler air will filter into some areas and limit the overall fire
   weather threat compared to previous days.  However, lower-elevation
   areas will receive ample heating/mixing and promote widespread
   elevated and critical fire weather conditions during peak heating
   hours.  Winds will exceed 20 mph in a few areas in conjunction with
   RH values falling below 10%.  In far southern New Mexico, winds are
   expected to exceed 30 mph in conjunction with the low RH values, and
   an extremely critical delineation is in place to address that
   threat.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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