Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Apr 12 19:56:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 121955 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM...MUCH OF WEST TX...AND SOUTHWESTERN OK... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions with large to extreme rates of fire spread will occur across portions of southern/eastern NM, much of west TX, and into southwestern/central OK.*** No substantial changes have been made to the extremely critical fire weather area for Day 2/Friday. Sustained west-southwesterly winds of 30-40 mph appear likely across this area, with higher gusts to 50-60 mph possible. RH values will plummet into the 7-15% range behind an eastward-mixing dryline, and dry to very dry fuels will support large to extreme fire spread. Some uncertainty remains regarding the placement of a cold front at the beginning of the period across northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles and southwestern KS. However, there is enough agreement amongst 12Z guidance to adjust the northward extent of the critical area across the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK and south-central KS to account for strong/gusty winds of 20-30 mph and RH values less than 15% ahead of the front Friday morning. As the cold front moves southward across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon, winds will shift to northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and quickly increasing RH values should tend to reduce the fire weather threat behind the cold front, although the wind shift could redirect any ongoing fires. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 04/12/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0246 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018/ ...Synopsis... A second day of widespread critical fire weather will exist Friday afternoon. A vigorous mid-level low will begin to close off over the central Plains and decelerate its eastward progression. As this process occurs, a belt of strong mid-level flow will persist from portions of the Southwest eastward through southern New Mexico, west Texas and northeastward into western Missouri. Meanwhile, a surface low will migrate eastward toward northwestern Missouri during the afternoon, with two surface boundaries modulating the overall fire weather risk: 1) a southward-moving cold front that should reach the Texas Panhandle by mid-morning and 2) an eastward-moving dryline that should reach the US75 corridor during the afternoon. South of the front and west of the dryline, dangerous fire weather conditions will likely develop and persist into the evening hours. ...Southwest into the southern and central Plains... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are likely across portions of far southern New Mexico, much of west Texas, and through southwestern/central Oklahoma*** As mentioned previously, fire weather conditions will become most dangerous south of a cold front over the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma and west of a dryline that should reach the US75 corridor (from Tulsa to Dallas) and extend south-southwest from there along I-35 in Texas. In this region, a broad area of surface winds exceeding 30 mph and single-digit RH values will exist for several hours during the afternoon. An extremely critical fire weather delineation has been made in areas most likely to experience these conditions (amidst dry fuels). The northeastern extent of this area is a bit more in question due to frontal passage timing and specific position of the dryline. Still, it appears that an axis of dry, windy conditions will extend from southwest Oklahoma to east-central Kansas, with conditions potentially exceeding extremely critical fire weather thresholds (30 mph winds and 15% RH values) in Oklahoma on at least a brief/localized basis. Briefly critical fire weather (20 mph winds and 15-20% RH) may also affect areas of east-central Kansas, although this regime is a bit more conditional. These areas will be monitored for a possible upgrade and/or extension of critical spatial areas in later outlooks. Farther west from New Mexico into the Lower Colorado River Valley, cooler air will filter into some areas and limit the overall fire weather threat compared to previous days. However, lower-elevation areas will receive ample heating/mixing and promote widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions during peak heating hours. Winds will exceed 20 mph in a few areas in conjunction with RH values falling below 10%. In far southern New Mexico, winds are expected to exceed 30 mph in conjunction with the low RH values, and an extremely critical delineation is in place to address that threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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