Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Apr 18 07:23:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 180722 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA...THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The greatest fire weather concerns on D2/Wednesday will likely be tied to an approaching mid-level trough centered over central California at the beginning of the forecast period. This trough will migrate eastward during the day while resulting in a dramatic increase of mid-level flow in dry areas of the Southwest. At the surface, a low will strengthen while reaching southern Utah around 00Z. The strengthening surface pressure gradient around this low will result in increasingly strong southerly flow from the Southwest eastward to the southern and central High Plains. Additionally, locally elevated fire weather may also develop in the Carolinas again as breezy and dry conditions develop in that area. ...Southwest into the southern and central High Plains... A broad area of enhanced surface flow will develop due to 1) a tightening surface pressure gradient surrounding the southern Utah low, 2) increasing mid-level flow, and 3) vertical mixing processes. This flow will be strongest in areas of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, where 30-40 mph sustained winds are possible along with higher gusts. Additionally, very low RH values will develop across the region - perhaps as low as 5-7% across Arizona and western New Mexico and around 10-15% along the Utah/Colorado border and also in areas of the Colorado Front Range. Given the aforementioned fire weather scenario, broad areas of elevated to critical fire weather are expected and attendant delineations have been made to address this threat. Additionally, a few areas from east-central Arizona into western New Mexico will exceed extremely critical thresholds for several hours during the evening (single digit RH values, dry fuels supporting ongoing fire activity, and 30+ mph surface winds). Farther southeast, RH values are a bit in question as modest low-level moist advection should be ongoing across the Texas South Plains/Panhandle and points east. Surface winds will exceed 20 mph however, and if models trend drier in the boundary layer over time across this region, an upgrade to critical may be needed. ..Cook.. 04/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home