Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Sep 14 20:01:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 141959 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND WEST-CENTRAL UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND UTAH...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN/SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... Extremely critical conditions are likely to develop over portions of east-central Nevada and west-central Utah as southwest sustained surface winds of 30-35 mph and RH values of 5-15% are forecast to develop over this area. The critical area was also expanded to include more of western/northern Nevada as enhanced downslope flow and strong mid-level winds will mix to the surface yielding sustained west-southwest winds of 20-30 mph and RH values of 5-15%. Critical conditions will likely last for several hours and overnight RH recovery will continue to be poor. Active large fires across the elevated/critical/extremely critical areas will be affected and fuels remain critical with some stations/areas approaching or setting new record high (low) values for ERCs (fuel moisture). ..Nauslar.. 09/14/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will round the base of a longwave trough over the northeastern Pacific on D2/Saturday. An associated, potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon. In response to the upper-level wave, a surface trough will deepen over the northern Great Basin and increase the surface pressure gradient. ...Portions of Great Basin and Central Rockies... Another day of widespread critical weather conditions are expected over parts of the Intermountain West. Stronger mid-level flow as well as a stronger surface pressure gradient are expected as compared to previous days. Afternoon winds will reach 20-25 mph with some areas, particularly east-central Nevada and portions of western Utah, potentially experiencing 30+ mph. Enough uncertainty exists with regard to the location/duration of 30+ mph winds that no upgrade to extremely critical will be made at this time. A very dry airmass will remain in place with RH values generally in the 5-15% range. Surrounding these critical areas, a broader area of elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. RH values will range from 10-20% with surface winds only reaching 15-20 mph. Some model guidance suggest areas of west-central Nevada may reach critical thresholds, but enough spread exists within model solutions that a critical area will not be introduced in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home