Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 25 05:50:03 UTC 2021 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 250549 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negative-tilt shortwave will traverse the southern Plains early in the forecast period before reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually Michigan late. Meanwhile, another longer-wave trough will become established across the Southwest. The overall pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced flow aloft from the southern Rockies across Texas and on to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, cyclogenesis will occur from Arkansas into Indiana, spreading a relatively dry airmass across portions of deep south Texas while maintaining dry air across portions of the southern Rockies. Another lee trough will organize in the New Mexico Plains as well during the day. ...Deep South Texas... Models are less pronounced with lowering surface RH values during the period of peak wind gusts (15Z-21Z). Nevertheless, areas of 15-30% RH are likely to develop over the course of the afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the 80s F. 15-25 mph northwesterly surface flow will persist through early afternoon before tapering off, as the deepening low over the middle of the country departs the region. Fuels are quite dry, however, and ERCs are relatively high for this time of year, supporting an elevated fire-weather threat. ...Southeastern Arizona through far west Texas... Vertical mixing processes beneath strong flow aloft and lee troughing along the New Mexico Plains will encourage areas of 20-30 mph surface winds in the area through much of the forecast period. This flow will occur within an airmass characterized by 15-25% RH values and among areas of dry fuels in part due to drought. RH values will be a bit too high to justify critical highlights, however. ..Cook.. 03/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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