Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 25 05:50:03 UTC 2021 (
| 
)
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 25 05:50:03 UTC 2021 (
| )
| |||||||||
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250549
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, negative-tilt shortwave will traverse the southern
Plains early in the forecast period before reaching the
mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually Michigan late. Meanwhile,
another longer-wave trough will become established across the
Southwest. The overall pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced
flow aloft from the southern Rockies across Texas and on to the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, cyclogenesis will occur from Arkansas into
Indiana, spreading a relatively dry airmass across portions of deep
south Texas while maintaining dry air across portions of the
southern Rockies. Another lee trough will organize in the New
Mexico Plains as well during the day.
...Deep South Texas...
Models are less pronounced with lowering surface RH values during
the period of peak wind gusts (15Z-21Z). Nevertheless, areas of
15-30% RH are likely to develop over the course of the afternoon as
surface temperatures rise into the 80s F. 15-25 mph northwesterly
surface flow will persist through early afternoon before tapering
off, as the deepening low over the middle of the country departs the
region. Fuels are quite dry, however, and ERCs are relatively high
for this time of year, supporting an elevated fire-weather threat.
...Southeastern Arizona through far west Texas...
Vertical mixing processes beneath strong flow aloft and lee
troughing along the New Mexico Plains will encourage areas of 20-30
mph surface winds in the area through much of the forecast period.
This flow will occur within an airmass characterized by 15-25% RH
values and among areas of dry fuels in part due to drought. RH
values will be a bit too high to justify critical highlights,
however.
..Cook.. 03/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...