ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221700
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a potent mid-level
trough beginning to dig into northern California. Dry air aloft is
quite evident with this feature and is forecast to impact portions
of the Northern Coastal Ranges during the overnight. Forecast
soundings capture this dry air aloft well, though relatively
efficient boundary-layer cooling in these soundings keeps this air
from mixing to the surface. However, some concern exists that strong
surface flow in localized areas will promote greater overnight
mixing than models suggest. High-resolution guidance continues to
the suggest that this will only occur on a spatially-limited basis
so no highlights will be introduced.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/
An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of
the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight.
Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated
area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore
across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late
this afternoon and into the overnight.
A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where
sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with
surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the
brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction
of a fire weather area.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this
evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern
Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with
overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty
surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire
area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest
greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)