Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Sep 22, 2019 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 22 17:02:03 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190922 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20190922 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 221700

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

   Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


   Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a potent mid-level
   trough beginning to dig into northern California. Dry air aloft is
   quite evident with this feature and is forecast to impact portions
   of the Northern Coastal Ranges during the overnight. Forecast
   soundings capture this dry air aloft well, though relatively
   efficient boundary-layer cooling in these soundings keeps this air
   from mixing to the surface. However, some concern exists that strong
   surface flow in localized areas will promote greater overnight
   mixing than models suggest. High-resolution guidance continues to
   the suggest that this will only occur on a spatially-limited basis
   so no highlights will be introduced.

   ..Wendt.. 09/22/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

   An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of
   the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight.
   Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated
   area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore
   across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late
   this afternoon and into the overnight. 

   A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
   this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where
   sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with
   surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the
   brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction
   of a fire weather area. 

   ...Northern California...
   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this
   evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern
   Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with
   overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty
   surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire
   area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest
   greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Related Fire Weather Web Links
Top/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: September 22, 2019
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities