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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Jan 16, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 16 16:46:03 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210116 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20210116 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 5,206 2,929,641 Riverside, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Moreno Valley, CA...
   FNUS21 KWNS 161645

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z


   The previous forecast remains on track. The latest high-resolution
   model guidance suggests that a brief uptick in offshore flow may be
   observed late this morning into early afternoon across portions of
   the southern Transverse Ranges in southern California. Thereafter,
   offshore winds should begin to gradually subside with the onset of
   upper ridging. Guidance consensus also continues to show locally
   Elevated/Critical conditions possible by afternoon peak heating
   along the immediate lee of the Sacramento to Davis mountains across
   southern New Mexico into southwestern Texas. No fire weather
   highlights have been added given the continued mediocre
   receptiveness of fuels and the spatially confined nature of the
   favorable surface winds/RH overlap. Lastly, dry and occasionally
   breezy conditions are still likely along the Georgia/Florida border
   later this afternoon, but Elevated conditions should remain sparse
   enough to warrant the withholding of Elevated highlights, especially
   given recent rainfall accumulations.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021/

   An upper-level low in place across the Midwest will gradually weaken
   and lift to the northeast into New England through today. As this
   occurs, cool dry air will continue to overspread the eastern
   two-thirds of the CONUS. Pressure gradient winds will be weaker
   compared to previous days, which will limit the fire weather
   potential despite the dry air. To the west, a slight
   re-intensification of surface high pressure across the
   inter-mountain West will maintain offshore winds and support another
   day of fire weather concerns. 

   ...Southern California...
   Early morning surface observations from coastal southern CA show RH
   values struggling to recover out of the teens with wind gusts into
   the 20-40 mph range. Elevated to localized critical conditions are
   already ongoing and are expected to increase in coverage through the
   day. RH values should remain in the teens, and fuels remain
   receptive due to no recent precipitation. Upper-level height rises
   along the West Coast will help augment the surface high to the north
   of the region, resulting in a strengthening offshore pressure
   gradient and increasing winds (a -5 to -7 mb LAX-DAG gradient
   appears likely by mid-day). Weak upper-level support will limit the
   overall wind potential, but gusts up to 40-45 mph are likely. While
   critical conditions appear most likely for portions of Ventura, Los
   Angeles, and southwest San Bernardino counties, transient/localized
   critical conditions may extend southward to the U.S./Mexico border.

   Winds should begin abate somewhat by the late afternoon hours, but
   guidance continues to suggest that breezy conditions could persist
   into early Sunday morning for some locations. However, falling
   temperatures and gradually increasing RH may limit the fire weather
   threat for early Sunday. 

   ...Central New Mexico into southwest Texas...
   The re-intensification of the western surface High will support
   15-25 mph westerly downslope winds along the higher terrain of
   central NM into southwest TX. Overnight RH values in the teens to
   30% range are expected to remain in the teens or fall to the low 20s
   by this afternoon, which should support at least elevated wind/RH
   conditions. However, fuels across this region remain somewhat
   marginal and should limit the overall fire weather concern. 

   ...Northern Florida and southern Georgia...
   Dry air advecting into the region today will help RH values fall to
   near 30% for many locations along the FL/GA border. Breezy winds at
   around 15 mph are also anticipated and could support elevated
   wind/RH criteria for some areas. Despite dry conditions in the
   previous few days, recent radar estimates show 0.1-0.25 inches of
   rain have fallen over the past 24 hours, which should limit fuel

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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