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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Mar 31, 2023 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 31 14:16:03 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230331 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20230331 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 189,730 2,460,710 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   FNUS21 KWNS 311415

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Valid 311700Z - 011200Z


   The previous forecast remains on track regarding widespread,
   high-end critical fire-weather conditions developing this afternoon
   in portions of the Central/Southern Plains. No changes were made to
   the Elevated/Critical areas. Although fuels do not support a
   delineated area, the greatest chance for Extremely Critical
   meteorological conditions (relative humidities around 5-10 percent
   and sustained winds around 30 mph) will extend from the OK/TX
   Panhandles south through the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Critically
   dry and windy post-frontal conditions may also develop farther east
   across southeastern KS and central OK. Moister fuels and some
   overnight precipitation -- especially south of the I-44 corridor --
   lessen the overall threat here, but an increase in initial attack is

   ..Flournoy/Bentley.. 03/31/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023/

   A deepening surface low will track northeast across the Central/High
   Plains with an attendant cold front tracking eastward across the
   Plains into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys on Friday. Behind
   the cold front, clearing skies are expected with a broad region of
   strong westerly flow and relative humidity reductions creating
   Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions across portions of the
   Central and Southern Plains. 

   ...Central and Southern Plains...
   Strong downslope warming and drying is expected across eastern
   Colorado and eastern New Mexico into western Texas, Oklahoma, and
   Kansas. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained
   westerly winds 25-35 mph will be likely, supporting a Critical
   delineation. This area was expanded to reflect recent HREF guidance
   and lack of meaningful rainfall across western Kansas and Oklahoma
   on Thursday. Relative humidity could drop as low as 10 percent
   across some portion of this region, which would suggest corridors of
   Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are possible. HREF
   conditional probabilities highlight the most likely region for
   Extremely Critical conditions to occur across southwestern Texas
   into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Fuels in this region do not support
   including an Extremely Critical area at this time, given ERCs
   largely around the 60-70th percentile. Even so, this scenario
   remains a high-end Critical fire weather situation.

   Elevated conditions will extend into eastern Oklahoma and Kansas.
   Fuels within this region are less supportive of fire spread due to
   recent rainfall. Even so, dry and gusty conditions Friday will
   support some response in fine fuels and potential for increased risk
   of fire spread.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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