Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Sep 8 07:03:03 UTC 2024 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Sep 8 07:03:03 UTC 2024 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080701
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify
as a shortwave perturbation moves onshore across parts of WA and OR
today. As the shortwave trough intensifies, flow aloft should also
increase as it overspreads the Northwest and Great Basin. Showers
and thunderstorms, along with gusty, winds are likely across much of
the West, with elevated fire-weather potential.
...Dry Thunder...
Beneath the cold core of the upper trough moving inland, a
thunderstorm may be ongoing through the morning hours across
portions of the Pacific Northwest. Greater storm coverage is
expected to develop through the day, as daytime heating and lift
from the upper trough interact with deepening mid-level moisture.
Model soundings show weak buoyancy atop warm and dry low levels and
storm motions greater than 20 kt. With poor precipitation efficiency
expected, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms appear
likely over receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage
is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades,
into eastern ID and far southwestern MT.
Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the
southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger
flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, a
wetter storm mode is expected. A few drier strikes are still
possible outside of the wetter cores within receptive fuels, but the
coverage of drier storms appears limited.
...Northern Great Basin and the Cascades...
As the trough moves inland, a belt of stronger mid-level flow is
expected to intensify over parts of the northern Great Basin and the
southern Cascades. The stronger flow aloft will support an increase
in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Residual warm temperatures beneath
the weakening ridge and the increase in downslope winds will favor
drier low levels, with RH minimums below 15% likely. Widespread
elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible
across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy
conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels.
Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap
winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as
stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will
eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time,
potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather
concerns.
..Lyons.. 09/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...